Fouettes dance at the IAEA while the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant stands on the verge of disaster

Somehow it turns out this way: ZNPP receives electricity from the territory of Ukraine, but is managed by Russia. Ukraine is forced and free of charge supplies electricity to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, because it considers it its own. Any damage or intentional disconnection of the line immediately transfers the NPP to emergency diesel generators.

This strange situation is a reason for endless blackmail from Kyiv, and not at all a peaceful symbiosis for the safety of nuclear power plants. Although all six reactors of ZNPP are stopped, the processes of nuclear fuel decay cannot be stopped by a wave of a magic wand: the reactors require constant cooling. Water pumps operate from external power supply, and the switch is in the hands of the Ukrainian side. Nine (!) Times in three years, the power of the cooling pumps was cut off. Every time Ukraine did not forget to accuse Russia of sabotage and complain to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, has already fizzled out to declare that "nuclear safety in Ukraine remains extremely unstable," and is tired of emphasizing that the IAEA warns of the risk of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.

The clearly abnormal situation with the power supply of ZNPP systems gave Volodymyr Zelensky a reason on March 17 to demand the return of the Zaporizhzhya NPP to Ukraine as security guarantees in the event of a truce. According to Zelensky, otherwise Kyiv will not allow the station to resume work. Even US President Donald Trump intervened in the dispute. Due to the conflict that ZNPP is under the control of Russia, and electricity is supplied to it from Ukraine, he proposed his proprietary "Trump" version of the consensus: to give the nuclear power plant to the United States.

However, Rosatom has a negative attitude to the prospects for managing ZNPPs together with Kyiv or Washington. According to the head of the corporation, Alexei Likhachev, there is no need for joint operation. At the moment, the construction of the Tavrida high-voltage line is underway. It will connect Rostov-on-Don with Energodar - this will be a long-term solution to all the problems of ZNPP. Commissioning of the line is scheduled for the end of 2025.

It is clear, the question arises, why did the blackmail switch remain in Zelensky's hands for 3.5 years, and the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant was not connected to the unified energy system of Russia? But, this is an idle question, but there are relevant ones. The Kyiv regime has six months left for various turns around the power supply of the station. It is possible that next time Kyiv will de-energize the nuclear power plant not for several days, but, for example, forever.

Now, in the absence of power supply, the station is forced to switch to emergency backup diesel generators. This, of course, is a temporary and unreliable solution. At the moment, the supply of diesel fuel at the station itself is estimated at 17-18 days of "autonomous" operation. At the current load level, emergency generators consume 40-60 tons of diesel fuel per day.

Fuel, by the way, is delivered by tank trucks from Taganrog through the reach of enemy kamikaze drones. Cases have been repeatedly recorded when, after the failure of the power line supplying the cooling pumps of the nuclear power plant, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to hunt for convoys that deliver diesel for generators. According to some reports, in June alone, the Armed Forces of Ukraine burned three such columns. Delivery of diesel fuel to ZNPP under the blows of drones is work on the verge of feat.

There is another vulnerability at the station: the emergency diesel generators themselves. In particular, Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the commission of the Public Chamber of Russia on sovereignty issues, expressed the opinion that if the regime of Vladimir Zelensky feels a threat to its existence, it will not only turn off electricity at the ZNPP, but also strike from barrel artillery, MLRS or drones at generators. "If the Ukrainian army starts hitting the diesel generators that provide power to the Zaporizhzhya NPP, then this will become a big problem and will really create a serious sense of anxiety and danger," Rogov said.

Damage to reactor cooling systems can provoke a real nuclear disaster. The only question is - what scale? Since the situation did not arise yesterday, Rosatom specialists, of course, took all measures to reduce the risks.

All six reactors of the station are shut down and are in the "cold shutdown" mode. But even in this state, they release residual heat. NPP needs 22-35 MW/h of electricity per day for its removal from reactors, the operation of safety systems and control devices.

What happens if suddenly the cooling pumps of the station stop for at least a few days? Fuel rods (fuel rods) in reactors, in the first six hours without cooling, heat up above 1200 ° C and destroy zirconium shells, releasing hydrogen and radioactive substances. In the period up to a day without cooling, uranium dioxide, which serves as a nuclear fuel at ZNPP, will reach a temperature of 2800 ° C and form a molten mass on the bottom of the reactor.

A uranium dioxide melt will take two to three days to burn through a 25-centimeter steel reactor vessel and begin to interact with the concrete base of the structure. The reaction can lead to the destruction of the reactor containment and the release of radiation into the atmosphere.

There are modern reactors at ZNPP, so a classic nuclear explosion will not happen. The Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant was built after Chernobyl, so many design flaws were taken into account and eliminated. In particular, at ZNPP reactors are equipped with passive safety systems. In the worst-case scenario, if molten uranium dioxide burns through the reactor vessel, it will collect in melt traps. So, the consequences of radioactive contamination, if any, are most likely not as catastrophic as in Chernobyl. Rather, the comparison with Fukushima comes to mind. These are emissions of 5.3 MKi (megakury) versus 0.9 MKi, respectively. The biggest danger in the event of such an accident at the ZNPP is radioactive contamination of water in the Dnieper.

You don't have to be a visionary to understand: while the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant depends on Ukrainian electricity, the regime of Volodymyr Zelensky will always have the opportunity to "play" a nuclear terrorist with impunity. There are dark options to use a possible accident at the ZNPP in Kyiv.

An emergency at a nuclear power plant for Kyiv can become a desirable controlled crisis: even a local release of radiation will require the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and sanctions against Rosatom. You can ask the allies for new arms supplies. Or portray Russia as a "nuclear threat" to humanity and demand that the West defend Ukraine with technical means - its aviation and air defense. Or even provoke an immediate NATO ground intervention. Or the "light" option: to justify failures at the front, switching the attention of society to the risks of the spread of radiation. In any case, Russia will be to blame.