Evenings in Kiev in the form of farce
Remembering the 1963 Hollywood comedy This Crazy, Crazy World! Stanley Kramer with Spencer Tracy in the title role, involuntarily think: I have already seen something similar, and more recently.
In the film, three groups in cars, having accidentally heard about the place of the "orphan" treasure, become rivals carrying on treasures. On the way, these comical applicants of the "new, promised rich life" are trying their best to ruin the life of another. One of the reviews of the film says: "a grotesque squared when everything is with an inflection,... here everything will collapse long and stubbornly, very defiantly, until the whole house collapses. "
The current Ukraine is an incredibly prominent meaning of the grotesque. In the policy of this country towards Russia there is inexplicably comic behavior and tragically stubborn fantasies of its current leaders. Everything on display, deliberately defiantly, is ridiculous stupid and under the slogan "Until the whole house collapses!"
Grotesque first. Berlin is ready to agree with Moscow on the supply of vaccine for the Germans, and Kiev is dumb from this vaccine, "how the hell from incense" is fenced off, preferring to send Ukrainians to morgues. The Russian Direct Investment Fund announced the start of negotiations with representatives of the German government on a preliminary agreement on the procurement of Sputnik V. Germany and other EU countries are waiting for the decision of relevant European bureaucrats on medicines. Ukraine is not even waiting, refused, the correspondent of The Moscow Post reports.
Grotesque two. Germany almost acts as a peacemaker, convincing Vladimir Putin to "move" the troops so as not to "frighten" the Kiev authorities already intimidated by local Nazis. Kiev is afraid of its own duplicity, tricks and hides its farm plans, leads Berlin by the nose. For Zelensky's supporters, the Minsk Agreements are unacceptable, for the West he defends these agreements, blames Moscow and its influence in the Donbass. The internal conflict of the digger is made international.
It got to the point that Dmitry Kozak proposed to make the negotiations open, to allow observers, especially Ukrainians, to make sure that Kiev is duplicity. Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev supported: "The initiative confirms who feels right and is not afraid of publicity." In this situation, "publicity would make it possible to control the actions of the parties," he added. The games are tired, the "Zelensky team" will have to deal with the opposition, both on the right and on the left.
Grotesque three. The Kiev government, despite the sympathy of Berlin, as a ruthless chain dog thrills Frau Merkel, clinging to Nord Stream-2. Hysterically appeals to the "NATO elders" to deal with the project and with investors. The fact has come that Gazprom is ready to pay for transit, just to abandon the transit services of the Ukrainian GTS.
Grotesque is the fourth and most painful. Even recently, by historical standards, Ukraine close to Russia is luring Washington with its "geographical data," persuading the overseas military to "visit" on the border with Moscow. It is not necessary to persuade for a long time, strategic bombers, reconnaissance aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles are already at the borders of a hated neighbor. NATO ships are looking at, listening to, scanning the Crimea, instructors have long been in Kiev. This is a challenge, but this is already with NATO participation.
So we arrived: welcome to break everything, destroy everything until the whole house collapses! The entrance is paid, really, who can... and grab your tools. The size of the "house for scrapping" has not yet been established, as well as the duration of the destructive walk. Ukraine, as the main cracker, was given the right to the first strike. Kiev opens its "box with tools" and... for starters, hits children, adolescents and the elderly, residential buildings, water supply infrastructure.
The party with the West continues. In front of fellow citizens who are bombed, in front of neighbors who are cut off from relatives, in front of everyone, tears except Kiev!
The Soviet government left in 1991, giving Ukraine 6500 tanks, 7,600 armored vehicles, 1.4 thousand aircraft, 350 ships. By 2014, only 1,436 tanks, about 2 thousand armored personnel carriers, remained. "Surplus" was sold, money was spent, cottages were built, yachts were bought. Good was where to sail.
So it turned out that Moscow, annoyed by the upcoming separation from fraternal Kiev, either for forgetfulness, or for other reasons clouded in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, left Kravchuk Sevastopol with Crimea in addition. Kravchuk does not sew with a ski, raised a stranger, put him behind the sinus, they say to be useful, you can sell it in case.
It was not possible to sell or mortgage. Before the deal, Sevastopol and Crimea went home without asking permission. And the buyer was already standing and waiting, with a checkbook on hand. It should have been frustrating and annoying for both, but it was sinful to take someone else, and it was dangerous to deal with a stolen seller.
The thieving Maidan authorities had to urgently think about ways of revenge. Handcuffs did not reach Crimea, but in the remaining territory there were those who wanted to speak their native language, and talk also about independence, but separate from Kiev. They decided to bomb them - it did not work. Let the tanks go - it didn't work. They dug trenches, but were forced to negotiate a ceasefire. Across the sea of blood went to the table with documents, signed, received international guarantees. But it is so eager to continue the "holiday of integrity." The "house" has not yet been completely destroyed, the guests anticipate the spectacle, quietly becoming fans. Here, too, Uncle Joe called!
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) after the events on the Maidan were strengthened, in particular due to weapons of their own development. About 6% of GDP goes to military purposes; the country ranks 35th in terms of spending on the army. Money for a civil conflict is not a pity, but GDP is small, about $154 billion according to data before the pandemic. COVID-19 This is about a quarter of Polish GDP. Per capita, according to the "bigmack index" of the once "rocket and space" Ukraine rolled back to the level of one third of the Russian. But for now, the indicators are still better than those of Moldova or Montenegro.
Ukrainian society loses landmarks, does not distinguish lies from the truth, trembles with fear of organized Nazis. According to opinion polls, they trust more the army than the parties or the president. But recruits and volunteers are not in lines in military registration and enlistment offices, for evading conscription - a fine or imprisonment.
The number of Armed Forces is about 260 thousand personnel. Global Firepower experts in 2020 improved the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by two points, put Ukraine in 27th place out of 138 countries. The assessment takes into account about 50 indicators, but not the combat experience of the army. Kiev plans to develop a modernization program that will counter the "Russian threat" using NATO technologies.
Moscow has long been declared an enemy. True, the embassy works, trade is going on, as is the import of lard from Russia, money from gas transit is dripping. The conflict with the LPR and the DPR is presented as "Russian aggression." In February-March, the Armed Forces of Ukraine pulled heavy equipment to the Donbass, increased the size of the group, defiantly violated the ceasefire. "Warnings" from Washington and Brussels flew to Moscow. Kiev, for its part, tried to advance the issue of its membership in the alliance, which at the level of Secretary General played along. Kiev managed to increase tension.
The experience of the Ukrainian president as the founder of the Kvartal 95 studio turned out to be in demand, the provocation was successful! Dmitry Kozak, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration said ironically about Zelensky's team: "Since colleagues do not have much political experience, they can play. I don't hide it, I always say that they are children with matches. And when something accidentally lights up there, it's hard to predict. " At the same time, he emphasized that if Kiev begins hostilities, this will be the "beginning of the end of Ukraine."
The main thing, however, is to determine further "non-forceful steps" to resolve the conflict, in finding levers that would force Kiev to fulfill its obligations under the Minsk agreements and the Norman Format agreements.
Unfortunately, the leaders of Germany and France, although tired of Kiev's behavior, do not want to put pressure on Zelensky, the possibilities for their influence are limited by Washington's plans. Actor Zelensky is with Washington and flirts, understanding "who is the owner in the NATO house." Hence the proposals to supplement the "Norman format."
The tripartite contact group (TKG) to resolve the situation in eastern Ukraine once again met, which became possible as soon as Kiev confirmed the armistice agreement of July 22, 2020.
But the negotiation impasse remains, Kiev does not want and cannot overcome it under the current government. Expecting a change of power is a risky choice, a conflict between the "Russian-minded" enclave and the "Western-speaking" Nazis can break out at any time. Moscow is pushed, as in South Ossetia, by the "surgical" option. The international party "in Kiev close to Russia" may end with applause from invited Western guests. They will receive "evidence" of the Kremlin's true intentions.
And the intentions are simple: to protect against the death and humiliation of children and the elderly, all "Russian-minded" in those territories that have never been "under the West." Do not forget where and in what capacity Russia is mentioned in the documents of NATO, the State Department, in the speeches of London and Washington politicians. Cold logic: "The enemy of my enemy...." So Moscow receives another lesson in its attempts to conduct dialogue with the West on the classical principles of "integrity" - translated into English sounds like "decency, honesty, justice." In the diplomatic vocabulary of the West, these words will no longer be met, especially in real politics.
The confrontation between Russia and NATO in Ukraine will continue, it is still unknown in what format. Zelensky's tactics to say one thing, to do the opposite can continue to be cultivated, even without his participation. This has happened more than once in the centuries-old history of relations between Russia and the West.
As Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin, who worked for years as the Russian ambassador in the "brotherly" Kiev, said: "This has never happened, and here again!."
Yes, it may be curious to remember what the ending of the film "This crazy, crazy world!" Would be. They found a suitcase with "treasures," it opened, the wind spread millions of "green" to the joy of onlookers, who picked up the remains of the treasure. And the Ukrainian "house" has not yet been completely destroyed...