When the "set-up" did not work
Thirty years have passed since the Soviet Union, which Vladimir Putin called Historical Russia, collapsed. Then it was difficult to imagine that it would come to someone's head to quarrel the fraternal peoples of Russia and Ukraine. However, with the efforts and money of the Western "uncles," contradictions are sown.
Patronage that is offensive
It seems that Washington really believed that Russia's ties with the world can be tried to undermine without risking its own economic interests. But that's not exactly true.
Indeed, bilateral economic relations between the United States and Russia are limited. The volume of bilateral trade according to the data for 2020 amounted to about 24 billion dollars. Russia's main trading partners are in Asia and Europe. But no one has yet calculated the consequences of possible comprehensive anti-Russian sanctions on the world economy, the correspondent of The Moscow Post reports.
For the extremely close American political community, including Congress, Russia is an adversary and a source of "harm." Interference in elections, cyber attacks, human rights, etc. Political relations on the outer circuit are also thin, there is practically no positive agenda. This was pointed out by Sergey Ryabkov in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper. Konstantin Kosachev says this: "Washington does not so much think how to behave with Russia in order to benefit, but more often in an applied sense: what, they say, to do with Russia in the context of China, Iran, Syria, Ukraine, Georgia, Libya, etc.?" This harms relationships that are in "negative stagnation."
What has become unusual for the United States is counter-warnings from Moscow and a demand to reckon with Russia's security interests in exchange for strategic stability and diplomacy. In this regard, Donbass, or rather the part of it that managed to "disagree" with Kiev-2014 and leave the Bandera under the protection of the DPR and LPR, is a minor fragment in Washington's foreign agenda. But the small crisis around Donbass is fraught with big problems for the interests of the United States, for the interests of American security itself.
Perhaps Biden decided that the civil war in this part of Ukraine can be made a lever in isolating Russia, but can also be used as a springboard to peacemaking. Taking care of the world for old Biden is more important than a universal fight. Strictly speaking, the United States was drawn into this distant conflict in a difficult part of the post-Soviet world due to the inertia of hostile relations with the USSR.
Support for an independent Ukraine was a continuation of the Cold War with an already defunct Soviet Union. The struggle, mainly ideological, which was in every possible way fueled by the dubious "characters with the ideology of V. Nuland and M. McFaul, [heirs to the ideas of Z. Brzezinsky] and this in itself is a significant factor in deterring any development" of normal ties with Russia, "Kosachev said.
The United States looked at Ukraine at the highest and highest level, but not on the basis of economic interests or knowledge of the situation. The country was supposed to be made "anti-Russia," not knowing that its southeast is Russia. Bill Clinton visited Kiev three times. Obama was a senator in Ukraine, and Biden came six times as vice president. But they were not up to the history of Ukraine, which was part of the USSR.
But I remember the visit of George W. Bush and how he, speaking in the Rada, warned: "Do not think that we can afford to solve your problems for you. Theodore Roosevelt, one of our great presidents, once wrote: "Being patronized is as offensive as being insulted." And he added (in today's realities, "finished off"), saying the following: "Americans... will not help those who promote suicidal nationalism generated by ethnic hatred. "
For Germany independent Ukraine looked as the desired territory for development. The European Union supported old dreams of Berlin and also the new attractive direction for the expansion and for bureaucracy of NATO. Striving for independence, Kiev aspired to Europe. The shortest way to the European Union lay through NATO. "Independent" wanted to become a strategic reserve of the West. Moscow quite so also perceives it. A rare example when there are no divergences in estimates.
In this sense the West for the fourth time for the last two hundred ten years dangerously approached line behind which the accidental shot can derail everything. This time the West approached Russia both by inertia, and on greed, without wishing the open conflict. I came nearer and strukhnut! The threat of the conflict, probably, can keep the White House, the European Union and even unruly Stoltenberg from escalation.
But warning "hand bell" can not ring out for field commanders of AFU, for those who were already tired to sit in trenches on the line of demarcation moreover with new anti-tank missiles. In it the main source of danger. Therefore Washington does laying between own safety and problems of Europe. Like, if there is a collision of Russia with Ukraine, forces of NATO won't interfere, but punishment for Moscow will be severe.
Group seven (G7), including Germany and France, once stirred up brains to the Kiev elite the idea of "transition" of Ukraine to an euro-state, too terribly warn Russia that hypothetical invasion will entail serious consequences and will force to pay a high price. The Russian President's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov didn't exclude that such campaign is a camouflage for cover of "aggressive thoughts which can take place in Kiev". Without the conflict with Russia Kiev will be lost in internal problems of Ukraine.
Especially as at an imperious top manners were already cut through to dictate to the West how to behave with Russia. In article in Foreign Affairs the Foreign Minister Kuleba suggested the West to explain to Moscow that Ukraine is a "part of the West and future member of the EU and NATO", to use "infernal sanctions" in case of "invasion", to achieve "peace with a great effort", arming Ukraine. In this role of "the strategic partner" the West defending all free world from Russia, Kiev can "achieve fair peaceful settlement" in Donbass. But for this purpose it is necessary to rewrite the Minsk Agreement.
When hand over nerves
Crisis in the relations of Russia with Ukraine and also excessively the intense relations with the West and NATO brought to Russia and the vital changes. There was it nearly eight years ago when Sevastopol and the Crimea were a part of the Russian Federation again. Sounds paradoxically, but a coup d'etat, kind of "unnoticed" by the western guarantors of the agreement with Yanukovych, plus assertiveness of the USA on the verge of impudence in style "a la Victoria Nuland" gave a historical chance to the Crimea. The part of Historical Russia which is illegally "presented" to Kiev returned without the use of force.
Vladimir Putin, addressing on March 18, 2014 deputies of the State Duma, members of the Federation Council, heads of regions of Russia and representatives of civil society, I told in the Address: "I will remind also that in Kiev statements for the fastest entry of Ukraine into NATO were already heard. What would be meant by this prospect for the Crimea and Sevastopol?".
Can be to it the Judo philosophy (soft way) helped? And not only with the Crimea, but also in another matters for two decades? Judge:
- The American missile defense system is almost nullified by the Russian hyper sound.
- Attempts to destabilize Assad's regime in Syria turned back successful anti-terrorist operation and the Russian bases in the Mediterranean.
- Plans of the West of political reformatting of Belarus led to strengthening of the Union State and strategic positions of Moscow.
- The aspiration to limit a role of Gazprom in Europe and to stop "Nord Stream-2" came across record increase in prices for gas.
- The sanctions regime wonderfully returned to Russia a role of the exporter of food, became an incentive to industrial and technological self-sufficiency.
- The space program of the USA still depends on the Russian engines.
- Even the climatic summit in Glasgow helped to report the EU that the fuel and energy balance of the Russian Federation is "purer" in comparison by other countries already today.
- History of the vaccine "Sputnik-V" and its certification which became a symbol of the competitive relations of the West and Russia in the sphere of high technologies is known to all.
Simple conclusion. The nervous West in twenty years quite often "failed and missed" in attempts to constrain Russia. And this list if desired can be continued, to fill up and to remember even more often the relations of Russia with China, to develop connections with the market of this country, other economies of the Pacific Rim. By the way, Vladimir Putin and the Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold on December 15, 2021 negotiations in a videoconference format. And natural gas is necessary not only Europe that is, actually, well known in Gazprom.
I always want to eat
It is clear that no conversation about relations between Russia and Ukraine is without mentioning the Nord Stream-2 project. Except for the latest talks between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. This pipeline is destined to go down in the history of the industry, almost like the COVID pandemic being recorded in the history of WHO.
Autumn 2021 generally passed under the "constellation of Miller" and another profile gas company "Novatek." Record increase in gas prices, Gazprom's contract with Hungary, preferential prices of the contract with Serbia. And now it is Berlin's turn to accept this very Russian gas. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who previously spoke to the union of chemists and power engineers, spoke about the need to increase gas generation by 12 GW by 2030, bring them to 43 GW. If production at the Dutch Groningen stops, one Germany can take the entire volume of gas of the Nord Stream-2 project.
Poland is also forced to bet on Russian gas, not conflict. And demands to reconsider the contract again due to the increased "market prices." Although it was Warsaw that until recently opposed not only the "additional gas" of the Nord Stream-2 project, but also demanded the introduction of "market" pricing principles under the Yamal contract. At the same time, the court received a lot of money from Gazprom. It remains to wait for the next contract, the current one is ending.
And another symbol. The first batch of Yamal LNG LNG was sent to the UK, to a terminal in Kent County. This is to the words of Lisa Trass that Europe should abandon Russian gas. Four years later, the operator of the next Arctic SPG-2 project reports that agreements on the foreign part of financing the project have been drawn up. Foreign shareholders contributed $10.6 billion, the entire project cost is estimated at $21.3 billion.
Arctic LNG 2 has contracted the entire future volume of production 20 years ahead. The buyers under the agreements were the trading structures of the project shareholders - Novatek itself, French Total, Chinese CNOOC and CNODC (CNPC subsidiary), as well as a consortium of Japanese Mitsui & Co and JOGMEC. Asia will be a priority for sales, but the terminal in Kent County will still be able to earn extra money on Russian LNG.
When there are no more questions
As we see, frontal pressure to take Russia out of balance did not always succeed, contractual "fraud" sometimes did not work, and some of Russia's answers were very convincing. The outgoing year was additionally painted by the formal break of the Russian Federation with NATO. To some extent, the tension diluted the second, virtual summit of the presidents of Russia and the United States.
The leaders talked, some agreements became known. Biden proposed de-escalation and diplomacy as a tool to stabilize the situation, which Washington itself destabilized. The Minsk agreements and the Norman format appeared in the negotiation dictionary. It turned out, in particular, that the United States was not going to send troops to Ukraine. And the increase in gas demand in Europe in addition to Germany may require an extension of the life of the gas transportation system of Ukraine beyond 2024. Who knows?