Ukraine, Poland and National Guard Jack
The Pentagon's secret material that hit the net exposed the true desires of the West.
Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the leak of classified Pentagon data, said that he had no doubts about the direct participation of the United States and NATO in the conflict in Ukraine. Polish politicians and the military are at the forefront of this conflict in three qualities at once - as instigators and de facto participants in the line of military contact. Poland acts as the main base for transshipment of military cargo, according to The Moscow Post.
Central to what "surfaced" in the classified materials, the Pentagon can be considered Washington's attitude to the prospects for resolving the conflict. It is alleged that "negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 under all scenarios considered," the files, which "leaked" to the Web, said.
At the same time, their content indicates that the strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Russia alarm Washington because these strikes can be delivered without the knowledge of the United States and lead to escalation. Dmitry Peskov's colleague John Kirby told CNN that "the risks of drawing the US and NATO into the conflict are high." He added that the authenticity of documents indicating Washington's plans to prepare the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a counteroffensive has yet to be established.
Believe, don't believe, check?
Jack Teixeira of the Massachusetts Air National Guard Cyber Systems Unit was detained and charged with two counts - receiving and transmitting classified defense information, deliberately storing classified documents. According to The Washington Post, Teixeira said that "he knows the secrets that the government hid from ordinary people."
The New York Times writes that Teixeira was the leader of an online group in which he disseminated classified information. But Tony Shaffer, who served in US military intelligence, said on the Judging Freedom YouTube channel that all this is suspicious. It is impossible to gain access to classified information at the level at which Teixeira was in service.
On motives, The Washington post says Teixeira was "driven not by ideology or political activism, but by a desire to shine before his online acquaintances" by having access to "cool material." Everything, they say, is an example of what experts called the "threat of the digital generation." There is a "new class of leaks," on the part of those who seek to show how life online can be transparent, "without rules that are considered old-fashioned or outdated," writes newspaper editor Mark Fisher.
"Most Likely Scenario"
One way or another, the office of the director of national intelligence declined to comment on the Ukrainian conflict, as outlined in secret files. And everything is set out there almost as in the articles of political scientists or journalists.
The surfaced documents contain forecasts of how Kyiv and Moscow can behave. American analysts believe that by the end of the year, the parties can only count on "minor" territorial acquisitions, The Washington Post claims in an article "Declassified documents say that peace negotiations on Ukraine are unlikely in 2023."
"There are not enough troops and ammunition for effective operations," neither side will achieve a decisive advantage, the Pentagon draws such conclusions.
It is also predicted that this situation will lead to the fact that Ukraine will resort to "full mobilization" of the population and increase attacks on the territory of Russia.
US needs sluggish conflict
Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov told TASS on Friday: "The feeling is that the Americans are experiencing our patience, our unwillingness to get involved in a direct clash. Moreover, the Ukrainian Nazis are extremely interested in a direct conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO. With their terrorist sorties, they are doing everything to provoke Russia to such strikes that would affect the states of the North Atlantic Alliance. "
It seems that Washington has no desire to risk a frontal clash with Moscow. For this there is Ukraine, at worst the states of the Baltic states and Poland. This is not the first time the Western coalition has taken "pauses" and "postponed" the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The reason, in particular, is that things are not going well for the Kyiv authorities. Border guards were transferred to Artemovsk from the western regions. There they serve as detachments, preventing the Armed Forces of Ukraine from retreating, a Wagner Group fighter participating in the storming of the city told RIA Novosti.
The challenge for the Pentagon and the State Department is to drag out the conflict by supplying weapons and not agreeing to peace talks. The main goal is to wear out Russia, to cause discontent in society, but without risk to their own security. As Yevgeny Prigozhin put it: "it is necessary to put some kind of fat point in the SVO." Just a fair fight: no agreement - Telegraph
"The NATO alliance and individual neighbors of Russia, like Poland or Finland, still lack an understanding of what they risk. Warsaw does not abandon the idea of gaining control over the western part of Ukraine, "said the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergei Naryshkin in an interview with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Control over the western territories of Ukraine, the so-called former Eastern Crosses, is the dream of Polish nationalists, said the director of the SVR.
Warsaw opposes a peaceful settlement of the conflict, assures that it will provide assistance to the Ukrainian authorities, although, in fact, it may wait for the military collapse of the Zelensky regime and appears as another obscure player who listens to London and can aggravate.
Block supplies, change mode?
According to documents circulated by Jack Teixeira, the Pentagon predicts that the Kremlin, in case of complications, will mobilize and continue hostilities. "Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 under all scenarios considered," the documents released said.
But it is specified: if there is no "significant improvement in military potential" in one of the parties. Or, as noted in declassified files, if the conflict of exhaustion does not lead to disappointment of the Ukrainian side in the way the struggle is being fought. Such a turn in mood "will increase the likelihood of a change of leadership" in Kyiv, whose positions are very vulnerable both in terms of gigantic corruption and in the field of oppression of the canonical Orthodox Church. But there seems to be nothing about corruption and the church in the files. How there is nothing about conscience.