"Hyena" hungry: Poland "marks" Ukrainian territories?
Poland dreams of "isolating" Belarus and "biting" a piece of western Ukraine, at the same time provoking a NATO conflict with Russia.
In recent days, in Polish power circles, there has been a real hysteria associated, among other things, with the movement of the Wagner group to their state border from Belarus. Training of Belarusian troops with Wagner commanders is presented as allegedly preparing Russia for a proxy operation in Poland. Under this false thesis, public opinion is warming up, especially in nationalist circles and openly revanchist circles.
At the same time, against the background of the deafening failure of the so-called. The counterattack of Ukraine in Warsaw aggravates relations with Kyiv. The "age-old friendship" cracked, old grievances and problems surfaced, which were carefully swept under the carpet under the slogans of the fight against the Kremlin.
What can this hysteria lead to - in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.
Draw NATO into conflict
The fact that the goal of Poland, and specifically the government of Mateusz Morawiecki, is to thaw under the guise of "Eastern Kresy" - the old territories of Poland in the center with Lviv - is Polischinel's secret. Representatives of the Russian intelligence community have repeatedly spoken about this, but this is also known without them - it is enough to watch the weather release on Polish TV, where the West of Ukraine is indicated on the map as part of the Polish state.
It was assumed that in the event of the defeat of the Ukrainian troops, even at first the North-Western Military District, Polish troops would have to enter the territory of Western Ukraine - either under the NATO umbrella, or under the auspices of the UN or some other organization. However, this rate has not yet played, and Poland's western partners were not delighted with such a plan - they do not want Poland to strengthen the EU, first of all, France and Germany.
Meanwhile, hotheads in Warsaw in their hysterical hatred can frame their Western allies. That's why White House National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby said recently that the United States does not see any threats to the security of Poland and other European NATO members from Wagner.
This statement is also for the internal Polish audience, warmed up by the propaganda of hatred against Belarus. Poland is struggling to inflate the mythical threat from Minsk and Moscow in order to knock out new supplies of weapons and military equipment.
The White House makes it clear that at the moment it is not interested in a new hotbed of military tension in Europe - they do not know what to do with Ukraine. And this is not just a conflict - in the event of a negative development of events, Poland hopes for the implementation of Article 5 on the collective defense of the North Atlantic Alliance.
That is, on the face of attempts to provoke Russia and Belarus in order to use this to start a major conflict under the auspices of NATO. In Washington, for all their dislike for our country, they understand what such a scenario threatens the whole world, and provocateurs from Warsaw are in no hurry to follow.
Moreover, against the background of the deafening failure of the so-called. Ukraine's counterattack on new Russian regions and growing tension with China on the issue of Taiwan. Yesterday, the furore was made by the news that the United States will allocate military aid to Taipei from a package intended to support Ukraine. Such a frank spitting in the face caused a real commotion in Kyiv, which was tired of pounding the thresholds, begging for more and more deliveries.
In the situation with Belarus, the head of the country Alexander Lukashenko added fuel to the fire. He made a subtle "trolling" of Polish elites, saying at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, allegedly Wagner is very much asking for an excursion to Warsaw and Rzeszów.
What happened after that in Polish propaganda can hardly be described. Such an image of the enemy, alarmist sentiments, was not there all the time after the start of the SVO. At the same time, Lukashenka understands perfectly well that there can be no question of any invasion of Poland - thus Lukashenka answers all insinuations, humiliation, insults and aggravation of the situation from the Polish side.
Against this background, Poland began to create a special unit to fight Wagner. According to the country's Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, the new Polish military engineering battalion will be deployed near the Suwalk corridor. And their Western allies, in order to somehow indicate solidarity with the Poles, said that any actions of the "orchestra" would be regarded as actions and aggression by the Russian state.
According to Belarusian political scientist Alexei Dzermant, the appearance of Wagner at the borders of Poland destroys Warsaw's plans for aggression against Belarus. Allegedly, Moravetsky's team hoped that it would increase the Polish army, deploying more and more divisions near the Belarusian borders, until it surpasses the Belarusian troops in power. The presence of Wagner fighters destroys their plans, because the blitzkrieg will not work.
True, even before that, Minsk was provided with more reliable "insurance" against Warsaw revanchists: Russia placed tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of its ally. However, this does not reduce the risk of provocations from the Polish side to zero. The Warsaw-Kyiv axis cracked
At the same time, relations between Poland and Kyiv have critically deteriorated. Or, more precisely, the already existing contradictions that swept under the carpet again climbed onto the gun against the background of the weakness of Kyiv and its inability to ensure a military victory over Russia.
A separate stumbling block was Warsaw's ban of April 15 on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products. The fact is that it is cheaper than Polish, as a result of which the Polish agriculture suffers losses. Therefore, friendship is friendship - and tobacco is apart. Amid Russian accusations of disrupting the grain deal, Poland is pursuing a protectionist policy, chopping off an already thin currency trickle to its closest ally.
Of course, in Ukrainian society this was perceived almost as a betrayal. They generally believe that Poland owes them a coffin of life for the fact that Ukraine "kills itself," restraining Russia. But in Poland, Ukraine is perceived as a kamikaze state. So their agrarians are "closer to the body."
All this has already led to a serious increase in tension between the two capitals. Such "incidents" can become an obstacle to the previously announced Ukrainian-Polish union, although it is still more hypothetically a project in case of a complete defeat of Kyiv on the battlefield.
In the most "independent", especially in nationalist circles, criticism of Poland for insufficient support in the fight against Russia is increasingly heard. This has already led to a major diplomatic scandal - perhaps the loudest since the start of the SVO.
Ukraine and Poland have summoned each other's ambassadors over an escalating dispute sparked by a statement by Poland's presidential foreign policy adviser that Kyiv should value Warsaw's support more in its standoff with Russia.
And then Polish football fans added fuel to the fire, who at one of the matches in the country unfurled a huge banner calling to remember the Volyn massacre. In Kyiv, it also made a serious impression - however, in fact, they understand that a clash with Poland is inevitable - but so far both states portray unity in the fight against a common threat - Russia.
Western territories of Ukraine, designated as Poland on Polish TV. Photo: https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2023/01/17/19507807.shtml?updated
This whole story is a direct consequence of the failure of the plan to destroy Russia, or at least the defeat of its army on the battlefield. And as the Russian Armed Forces are increasingly successful, Poland, nicknamed the hyena of eastern Europe with Churchill's light hand, will show less and less reverence for its Kyiv partners.