From the West to the rise: Russia chooses its own path
In a joint statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping dated February 4, 2022, Russia and China announced their readiness to counteract threats to security and stability in neighboring regions and resist the interference of external forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries. The year of geopolitical change was opened by a meeting in Beijing, the leaders summed up the results by videoconference on December 30 last year.
The desire to promote the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership was reinforced by the continuation of the dialogue on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkand, in the negotiations of the leaders by phone, during the 27th meeting of the heads of government and the visit to Beijing of the chairman of the United Russia party Dmitry Medvedev.
In the talks on December 30, Vladimir Putin said: "We look equally at the reasons, course and logic of the ongoing transformation of the global geopolitical landscape, in conditions of unprecedented pressure and provocations from the West, we defend principled positions and defend not only our interests, but also all those who advocate a truly democratic world order and the right of countries to freely determine their fate."
Chinese President Xi Jinping replied: "In the face of a difficult and far from unambiguous international situation, we are ready to increase strategic cooperation with Russia, provide each other with development opportunities, be global partners for the benefit of the peoples of our countries and in the interests of stability around the world."
About the tectonic shifts that occurred in geopolitics in 2022 in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.
It is difficult to assume that these events and words uttered at the highest level remained overlooked in the West. And it's not just CNN correspondents who have stated that "China has repeatedly refused to condemn the SVO, instead repeatedly placing the blame for the conflict on NATO and the United States -- and remaining one of Russia's key remaining supporters." Journalists and Western experts continue to expect that Moscow will be left alone, that the "dynamics of relations" with Beijing has changed or will change.
Western politicians point to the "unwillingness" of the Russian Federation and the PRC to formalize relations, shifting them towards the union. But the assessments that are being made at the CIA or Pentagon are leaning toward concern, not hopes of loosening ties. The rapprochement between Russia and China in the format of "more than an alliance" scares the West.
"Multipolarity... actually took shape in a new bipolarity, "Kommersant recently noted.
The United States and its allies began to move towards a new world order, calling China and Russia the main challenges to their interests, finalizing their pole. Moscow and Beijing were confronted with the fact. On the one hand, this geopolitical fault was expected. On the other hand, it has formed an additional source of unpredictability in an already unstable world.
For Russia, some of the changes were generated by US plans to expand NATO to the borders of the Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh and Rostov regions. The decision to start an SVO was also made in this context, in addition to the tasks of protecting the population of the former Ukrainian SSR, liberating this territory from Nazism.
The Chinese component of the fault was formed around Taiwan, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the PRC, predictable relations in the Taiwan Strait. Interference in this relationship has become not only a favorite occupation of the Washington political elite, but also a concern for the whole West.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi outlined his country's priorities as follows: "Finding the right path for relations with the United States, establishing more mature and sustainable integrated strategic coordination between China and Russia, as well as commitment to the healthy development of relations between China and the EU."
He emphasized that the relations of the People's Republic of China-Russian Federation are strong as they a monolith, and don't change under the influence of the international environment.
For Russia historically habitual, mutually advantageous, but conflict touches with the West are lost value, a lot of things rise on the places after three-four decades of next conditional "reconciliation". Europe and the USA find an image of hostile force in society again, but business didn't reach desire to destroy the evil on a root, still there are hopes for evolution and peaceful co-existence.
In the West Post-Soviet Russia is perceived in the old manner, through a prism of power rivalry. Not only economic war is declared. In the territory of the former Ukraine the Russian troops faced forces which equip the USA and support NATO countries.
For the Russian culture it is offered to enter "a mental quarantine", monuments communicate, there is a fight against Russian. Russia is brought to the level of the main threat to security of Europe. And the European elite is ready to go on the victims and risks for the sake of easing again if not destructions of Russia.
The value of Asia grows
The policy of turn of Post-Soviet Russia on the East has long-term history and in 2022 this line received confirmations, important on sense. Following the results of a popular vote Moscow-Kazan-Yekaterinburg-Tyumen Route M-12 is called "East", and a transport corridor from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok - Russia. "Bolshaya route - Russia, and this site - "East"", - Putin agreed, opening on December 13 by video conference the movement on three sections of the new road.
Key partners for development of the relations and economic relations are defined too. In February, 2022 Vladimir Putin took part in opening of the XXIV winter Olympic Games, after that visited Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. He participated in a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian economic council both the Caspian summit, and a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Meeting on interaction and measures of trust in Asia (SVMDA) in Astana and in the summit Russia — Central Asia. There took place negotiations of Astana "three" and in the Russia — China — Mongolia format and also an informal meeting of leaders of the CIS countries in St. Petersburg.
The most significant events in this row became the summit of the CSTO devoted to the 30 anniversary of the organization, PIEF and VEF-2022, tripartite negotiations of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in Moscow, a visit of the president of Turkey R.T. Erdoğan to Sochi and also the first trip to Moscow of the president of Kazakhstan K.Zh. Tokayev after his re-election. Eight meetings with A.G. Lukashenko were held.
"Curious observation: despite sanctions, in nine months of the current year the deliveries of the main goods from Russia to EU countries grew by 1.5 times, cumulative Russian export increased by 42%, and surplus of trade in our advantage — by 2.3 times, to 138 billion dollars" — Vladimir Putin told, having added that the EU continues to consume the Russian goods, but constrains deliveries of the to Russia. According to him, this situation "can't infinitely proceed".
At the beginning of 2022 the share of the unfriendly countries in the Russian export and import of goods and services made about 55%. By estimates, by December the share of "foes" in goods turnover decreased to 45%, generally due to reorientation of supply of oil and oil products to other markets.
I reported to the Ministry of Economic Development that goods turnover of the Russian Federation with Belarus, China, Turkey, India and Kazakhstan in nine months reached 261 billion dollars, or nearly 43% of the total amount of trade. In 2021 the share of "five" in goods turnover of the Russian Federation made 32.4%. The ruble share in a year in international payments grew twice to one third!
The representative of FCS reported in October that export in nine months 2022 made 431 billion dollars of Russia (plus 25% to the level of 2021), import was estimated at 180 billion dollars (minus 16%). Thus, goods turnover in January-September was 611 billion dollars.
Following the results of nine months of year the export of the Russian oil to the friendly countries grew almost by 25%. Till 2022 more than 55% of export of oil were the share of EU countries. According to Argus Media, in January, prior to special operation, 85% of volume of sea deliveries of a grade of Urals, and in September - 24% were the share of the EU.
India increased a share in purchases of Urals from scratch at the beginning of a year to 40% to an early autumn, and Turkey - from 5% to 21%. In January-October India imported from the Russian Federation 24.8 million tons of oil, to eight times more, in ten months 2022 bought in the Russian Federation of goods for 28 billion dollars, but exported only for 2.3 billion dollars.
According to customs of the People's Republic of China, in January-November, 2022 China imported 79.8 million tons of the Russian oil (10% more, than for the same period of previous year) with a total cost of 54.5 billion dollars. In January — November China increased export of goods to Russia for 13% in annual terms - to 67 billion dollars. In 2021 China provided a quarter of the Russian commodity import, following the results of 2022 the share of the People's Republic of China can reach 40%.
"Who does the bell ring for"?
Europe, meanwhile, is close to a crisis. All EU welfare was based on stable and cheap energy supplies from Russia, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on NHK. The mild winter created illusions of independence from Russian natural gas.
EU fuel reserves are at a record high, but how much this "gas maneuver" cost the European economy when injecting imported gas into UGS is silent. LNG is bought in the United States at prices three to four times higher than domestic American.
Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries (the EU and Turkey) fell by 45.1% to 97.8 billion cubic meters. Of all the Russian pipelines that supplied gas to Europe, now only the Turkish Stream, as well as part of the GTS of the former Ukrainian SSR, is fully functioning. It is planned to replace market losses by 2030 due to existing and new gas pipelines to China, as well as LNG exports, which can grow to 70 billion cubic meters.
The Economist predicted at the end of 2022 that "a brutal blow awaits Europe." Economic rivalries are escalating. The Inflation Relief Act, signed by the U.S. president in August, provides for an expansion of tax subsidies to buy electric vehicles that are assembled in the U.S., Canada and Mexico with batteries made in the U.S. This provides for $370 billion for clean energy and meeting climate goals, another $64 billion for medicines and health insurance.
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the European Union is working with the United States to ensure a level playing field for business. "But it does not have the same resources for state support for companies," added the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell. The EU cannot compete with the US on subsidies to the private sector.
European industry is suffering losses and is gradually moving to the United States. Well-being is melting, the population is alarmed by rising prices and business closures, elites are concerned about deindustrialization.
America is internally split. Two years have passed since the events on Capitol Hill and in the district, those unrest "still do not let go of the US public, and the degree of tension is perhaps higher than ever," writes Alexei Zabrodin in the Kommersant newspaper.
Some observers say that the internal tension in the United States is associated with a delay in generational changes at the top of the political pyramid, others blame the "overproduction of elites." Well-educated millennials cannot find a decent place in society, lose their jobs or are part-time, paying off loans taken out for higher education.
Unpredictability is the new normality
The West, waging wars, changed regimes and split countries, and now insists that borders cannot be changed by force even for the sake of self-defense. This greenhouse world, being in the minority, continues to declare its leadership in general and in protecting human rights in particular, while supporting Nazism and the Kyiv version of fascism.
There is no longer a healthy American democracy, it may never have been. Western elites insist on freedom of speech, blurring out any opinion that is different from that beneficial to the "owners."
Curiously, the Western elite is beginning to realize that the American "world order" is on the verge of collapse, that a new era is coming. According to a number of Western media, "unpredictability is becoming a new normality." This is what The Economist journalists called this historical transition, returning us to the work published by V.I. Lenin in April 1917.
The pamphlet was called "Imperialism, as the highest stage of capitalism. A popular essay. " More than a hundred years have passed and how much more is ahead - unpredictable, while "the main profits go to the" genius "of financial tricks"!