From the Ganges with Love
Despite attempts at US intervention, India remembering goes "hand in hand" with Russia.
The year-long sanctions targeting Russia will be remembered for dramatically speeding up Moscow's ties with its eastern and southern neighbors. The conflict between the Russian Federation and the combined forces of the EuroNATO Union in Ukraine helped the Eurasian states to better understand their interests, both in the Western and Russian directions. These changes accelerated in the context of the crisis in Ukraine. In particular, India has become one of Russia's leading trading partners, according to The Moscow Post.
With the departure of European partners, Russia pays even more attention to the development of the Northern Sea Route, betting on China and India in the implementation of energy projects in the Arctic, added The Diplomat.
Back in May, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the plenary session of the First Eurasian Economic Forum, noted about the "Big Eurasian Partnership" that this is not a political situation, but a reflection of the fact that the center of economic development is gradually moving to the Asia-Pacific region (APR).
Mystery of two oceans
Or in the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR) as would tell in Washington or Tokyo. These two Pacific allies not only observe process of "relocation of the center of economic development", but also actively participate in him. The main issue for them in the one who heads this movement and is better - controls.
At Japan to control it didn't turn out, the USA was connected, but both China, and Russia in which the idea of someone's domination of delight didn't cause appeared in time here. As a result, the regional Forum of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) remained in initial ASEAN-centrichnykh contours that doesn't suit Washington, and Moscow and Beijing support.
U.S. State Department, having headed splinters of the former British Empire, I decided to make a symbol of the new regional strategy the geographical concept attractive to "democracies", including, for India. The Indo-Pacific region was published in the political dictionary. If there is a difference between the Pacific Rim and ITR, then it, by and large, far-fetched.
But the idea of the Washington strategists is in replacing Pacific Rim partnership with the ITR-scheme attractive to India and closed for China and Russia. To distract New Delhi from SCO, BRICS and close ties with Moscow, to win round in already outlined opposition with China. In other words to deprive of New Delhi the rights to choose partners.
For normal people the border between Quiet and Indian oceans is conditional. But in understanding of the collective West the meaning of ITR in that also is that this scheme of interaction of the USA, Japan, Australia and other possible participants is directed against China. India seems the USA, Japan and even the European Union here as the potential partner strengthening West positions.
The second purpose – Big Eurasia with India in her borders as the key participant of the regional relations with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a political kernel. Washington with great concern watches the relations of Beijing with Moscow, hoping for what it somehow will manage to be interfered and spoiled in them.
Opponents hurry to the aid
The prospect of closer interrelations within a triangle of China-Russia-India of Americans, Japanese and other opponents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping doesn't please at all! From here and dances around the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, and throws in different occasions in each opportunity.
Various tools, including conjectures are for this purpose used. In December, the leading western media and the Indian intellectuals sympathizing the West actively discussed a condition of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership. A gossip went that Narendra Modi allegedly refused a meeting with Putin. In particular, the Bloomberg agency reported about it.
Information provocations reached the Kremlin. Nobody refused because the visit wasn't planned, - the Russian President's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said. Then, phone call of leaders took place on December 16, 2022.
Vladimir Putin told the prime minister Narendra Modi about how the situation on the Ukrainian direction is, "gave basic estimates in the context of the line which is carried out by Russia". The Russian leader expressed satisfaction with the high level of the bilateral cooperation developing on the principles of especially exclusive Russian-Indian strategic partnership.
Leaders in detail discussed the prospects of practical cooperation in such spheres as mutual investments, power, agriculture, transport and logistics. Spoke about coordination of interests within the international organizations, including in "Group of twenty" taking into account presidency of India and also the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The second after Iraq
Earlier, the prime minister of India mentioned plans to reach economic growth in 7.5% by the end of 2022. Assessment of the UN more modest (6.4%), the forecast of this organization for China makes 4.5%, across the EU — 2.7%, across the USA — 2.6%.
As reported reports CNBC, according to forecasts of S&P Global and Morgan Stanley, by 2030 India will overtake Japan and Germany and will become the third economy of the world. S&P Global estimates average rates of annual gain of GDP of India at the level of 6.3%. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2031 GDP of India will grow more than twice in comparison with present level. The industry share in GDP will grow by 2031 from present 15.6% to 21%.
The prospects for the development of India's economic ties with Russia are dictated precisely by the growth factors of the economy and industry. This will drive demand for food, fertilizers, energy raw materials including oil, coal, natural gas, and technology including civilian nuclear reactors.
According to Reuters estimates, in May 2022, Russia for India became the second oil supplier after Iraq, pushing Saudi Arabia to third place. Exports were estimated at 819 thousand barrels per day. In November, India purchased about 40% of all export volumes of Russian Urals oil transported by sea. European countries remained 25% of the total, Turkey - 15% and China - 5%.
In Russia, including the print media, not to mention television, there is very little information about India, including about the economy of this country. There is an opinion in the Russian expert community that bilateral trade between Russia and India is small.
This is so, but, judging by the data of trade statistics, they are still $2 billion higher than the experts of the Valdai club in the material published in December 2022. At the end of 2021, bilateral trade for the year increased by 46.5% and amounted to $13.5 billion. Russia's exports to India in 2021 exceeded $9.1 billion, an increase of 57.4% over the year. Russia's imports from India in 2021 amounted to $4.4 billion.
In the structure of Russia's exports to India in 2021 (and in 2020), the main share of supplies was accounted for by mineral products (TN VED codes 25-27) - about 32% of the total volume of Russian exports. In other words, by the beginning of 2022, trade volumes were already growing, the volume of Russian oil exports too. The Valdai club expert, expected in 2022, estimates the trade turnover even more modest, at only $18 billion.
But the trade turnover is growing, in the first six months (!) Of this year It amounted to 11.5 billion dollars, adding about 120% in relation to the same indicator last year, follows from the Kremlin materials for the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkand, TASS reported.
According to India's Ministry of Trade and Industry, trade rose to a record $18.2 billion in April-August. More than 17 billion accounted for Russian exports, including oil, oil products and fertilizers, which accounted for more than 91% of all Indian imports from Russia.
The volume of imports of Russian thermal coal to India increased to 570 thousand tons. The supply of Russian gas continues: India's gas transmission company GAIL is not going to abandon the contract with Gazprom for the supply of 2.5 million tons of LNG and plans to increase these volumes.
In the future, India may increase the purchase of Russian gold, which the G7 countries have abandoned. India is one of the largest consumers of this metal, Russia accounts for 9% of world gold production.
"Ruble" on "Rupee"
Business cooperation between India and Russia is not related to the military operation in Ukraine and will expand, said Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniy Jaishankar. He noted that this year Russia has sold many more goods than it bought from India, in connection with which New Delhi wants to level the trade balance and is ready to supply Moscow with more than five hundred types of various goods, including aircraft parts, automotive equipment and various equipment.
And the most interesting thing is that settlements in trade will be carried out in Indian rupees. This was announced by the head of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations Ajay Sahai. The National Bank of India allowed foreign trade transactions using the rupee, and correspondent accounts were opened for Russian banks to simplify and speed up the process.
"We are confident that the goal set by President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi - to bring trade to 30 billion - will soon be achieved," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said following talks with his Indian counterpart in early November.