Build "Old Man": the West again threatens Belarus
Since Lukashenka does not succumb to provocations, our former Western partners can use the experience of the Third Reich to create a reason for aggression against the Union State.
Poland, Latvia, Lithuania (have a common border with Belarus) and Estonia demanded the withdrawal of Wagner PMC fighters from the country. Otherwise, they threaten to completely close the border with Belarus and isolate it. President Alexander Lukashenko has already replied to unfriendly leaders that he will not do this, a little "trolling" in his manner.
What can be behind this - in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.
Thus, unable to change the balance of power on the border and influence the situation within the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, the so-called. "Eastern flank of NATO" moves on to outright threats. However, behind them is not at all a desire to isolate Belarus - it is impossible to do this because of Russia, with which Belarus, in fact, has an open border. And how it turned out to isolate Russia, over the past two years, everyone has seen - this is unrealistic.
The real reason for the threats of the "limitrophes" and Poland is to inflate the mythical military threat from Wagner and the Union State itself as much as possible in order to earn points within the North Atlantic bloc, achieve additional funding for its armed forces and "pull" the infrastructure of this military bloc.
In 2020, these countries supported and financed an attempted coup in Minsk, similar to the one that took place in Kyiv in 2014. Lukashenka was able to defend the country and the choice of people, after which almost all Western agents lost a significant part of their influence on the internal political situation in the Republic.
After that there was a whole series of crises, the beginning of the SVO, the scandal with migrants. Let us remind you that our former Western partners have reached the fantasy that Lukashenka specially brings migrants to the border with Poland, supplies them with clothes, food, tools, and "drives" them towards the European Union.
Given several rows of barriers at the border, including fences, anti-tank hedgehogs and video cameras from the Polish side, these statements look completely surreal. Not to mention the lack of any evidence.
Meanwhile, the request in itself to remove Wagner from Belarus is indicative. This is a direct attempt to interfere in the affairs of a sovereign state, and even in an ultimatum form. We remember how the Polish elites reacted to Vladimir Putin's proposal to "roll back" NATO to the 1997 situation. It was an invitation to dialogue, but it was rejected with insults and curses.
Now the Poles themselves are doing something similar - only they offer not to negotiate, but threaten. Such is their "rules-based world."
As already mentioned, against this background, there is lobbying for the interests of the Western military-industrial complex through the pumping of Eastern European countries with new NATO weapons and formations. In July 2023, in Vilnius, the Alliance countries decided to deploy additional forces in eastern Europe, increase units to the size of brigades if necessary.
A few weeks earlier, the Czech Republic announced that it would send additional forces to strengthen NATO's Eastern flank. Now there are more than 600 Czech soldiers in the Baltic countries and Slovakia. And at the beginning of the year, the same Poland signed a contract for the supply of more than 100 modern Abrams tanks, which will replace outdated equipment, which was decided to be disposed of by the forces of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine.
The goals of Poland, which has become the main "backbone" of the Anglo-Saxons in Eastern Europe, are understandable - the change of regimes in Russia and Belarus, the rejection of historical Polish territories from the latter. In the event of the defeat of Ukraine, it is possible to send troops to the West of the country "under the umbrella" of NATO or in another format in order to ultimately establish actual control over the Eastern Kres.
Operation Canned Food 2.0
In the case of Belarus and the constant mention of Wagner, it's not just about fear and attempts to earn points in the intra-Polish political arena. Provocations are quite possible, in which later they can accuse the employees of Wagner, or even just Belarusian border guards. And to use this as a "legitimate" reason for aggression against Belarus.
Thus, the situation could become a tracing paper with the famous staging of the "attack" of Poles on the German radio station in Gleivitz, which was used by the Nazis, as a reason to start a war against Poland in 1939.
The operation was named "Canned Food" and was carried out by SS forces as part of an even more "large-scale Operation Himmler." It was organized by Reinhard Heydrich and his subordinate, the head of the VI-F group (sabotage), SS Sturmbanführer Alfred Naujox, at the direction of Adolf Hitler.
Everything new is a well-forgotten old, and who prevents the Poles from using the experience of the Nazis, as they are used, for example, by their Ukrainian "twin"? In this case, there is no doubt that the Western man in the street will take everything at face value for the most part and support the "fight against the aggressor" slandered by propaganda, who has transferred "fakes." But most importantly, Poland will be able to rely on Art. 5 of the Charter of the Treaty of the North Atlantic Alliance in order to present itself as a victim of aggression and count on military assistance from the members of the bloc. Needless to say, this can lead to nuclear war and the total destruction of all living things?
The scenario is risky. And Lukashenka does not succumb to provocations. At the same time, there is an opinion that Poland is already ready to send troops to the territory of Belarus and Lithuania in order to seize the territories that previously belonged to it.
Only in this case can she expect to become a truly influential power, writes the influential Chinese newspaper Guancha. More specifically - Xue Kaihuan, a Chinese international journalist working at the Belarusian State University. All this happens in front of his eyes.
Fortified border between Poland and Belarus. Photo: https://bangkokbook.ru/galereya/belorussiya-granica-s-polshej-98-foto.html
For Russia, these are the same risks as for Belarus. It has been emphasized more than once that aggression against this country is aggression against the entire Union State. Only this seems to stop our former Western partners from taking more decisive action. And all the same, the scenario with the operation "Canned-2" cannot yet be ruled out.