Americans have seen the big Korean "finger"
Pyongyang showed the United States where sanctions winter
The special military operation in Ukraine and the role of America in organizing assistance to the Kyiv Nazis with weapons, mercenaries, intelligence change a lot, if not everything. Among the regions where changes not controlled by the United States are taking place is Northeast Asia (IAA), a correspondent for The Moscow Post reports.
Here's your grandmother and the "era of change"
On September 9, the DPRK Supreme People's Assembly adopted the "Law on Nuclear Forces Policy." This step legally secured the status of the DPRK as a nuclear state. The law provides for the right to a preventive nuclear strike on an enemy in the event of a threat to a country or its leader using nuclear or non-nuclear weapons, an attack on strategic facilities of the DPRK, as well as the need to prevent the delay in hostilities or the need to ensure initiative in them.
Speaking in parliament, DPRK leader Kim Jong-un said that the country will not give up nuclear weapons amid a threat from the United States, will not negotiate denuclearization. Possession of nuclear weapons is a legal and inalienable right of the DPRK, the Korean Central Telegraph Agency said on Friday.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the Chinese government has not changed its position on the nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula and continues to advocate for its political settlement. "We proceed from the general picture of maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula, and will also continue to play an active role in the political settlement of the Korean Peninsula problem," she said. China is a key economic partner of the DPRK, providing more than 90% of all North Korean foreign trade, estimated at about $700 million.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on Pyongyang to resume dialogue to achieve peace and denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. The White House said it does not harbor hostile intentions towards the DPRK and remains ready to start consultations with the aim of denuclearization. The Japanese authorities consider the North's nuclear program a threat to peace and security and are absolutely unacceptable, "said Secretary General of the Japanese Cabinet Hirokazu Matsuno. Tokyo would like to cooperate to achieve the goals of denuclearization of the peninsula.
It is not yet known when, how and in what format relations between the leading countries of the world with Pyongyang, as well as between the North and South of Korea will continue. We can say that since September the region of Northeast Asia, and with it the whole world, has entered a new era, in the center of which will be the DPRK, Russia, China and the United States with allies. The contours of the upcoming changes have not yet been outlined, but the Chinese leader called them "great ones that have not been there for 100 years."
"One hundred years of history,"...
Japan annexed Korea in 1910. This completed Tokyo's efforts to capture and colonize the Korean Peninsula, which de facto began with the Japanese-Korean Treaty of 1876. The peninsula was liberated from Japanese rule as a result of World War II, which ended on September 3, 1945.
North Korea liberated the USSR. Japanese forces defeated the 25th Army of the First Far Eastern Front, commanded by Colonel-General Ivan Chistyakov. The Japanese garrison of the port of Wonsan surrendered only on August 22. The surrender of the Japanese forces was accepted in Pyongyang and Hamhin, for which airborne landings were landed.
The disarmament of Japanese forces in the northern regions of Korea was completed only by September 1, 1945. By this time, units of the 25th Army had reached the 38th parallel, agreed with the United States as a line of control. The losses of the 25th Army exceeded four and a half thousand soldiers and officers, of which one and a half thousand died. American troops landed in South Korean Incheon only on September 8, after the signing of the act of surrender of Japan.
Big Korean Triangle
Since then, the divided peninsula has remained a US conflict zone with the DPRK, China and the USSR. According to South Korean experts, Washington's current plans to aggravate relations with Russia and China contribute to the rapprochement of DPRK security interests with China and Russia. The new head of the North Korean "nuclear saga" could push the United States, Japan and South Korea to aggravate, new steps in the military field. Deepening the "rut" of confrontation on the Korean Peninsula provides room for NATO to move East, creates additional benchmarks for the AUKUS bloc.
Whatever scenario you choose, do not avoid the question, what to expect next? In the first stages, the North Korean nuclear program developed with the support of the USSR. The DPRK had agreements on cooperation in the peaceful use of the atom with the USSR, and later with China. At the Center for Nuclear Research in Yongbyon County, a research light-water nuclear reactor with a IRT-2000 capacity of 2 MW was put into operation in 1965.
In 1974, the DPRK joined the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), continued to master nuclear technologies. In 1985, she signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Joining the agreement was a condition for further cooperation in the field of nuclear energy with Moscow. It was planned that Soviet specialists would build a nuclear power plant equipped with four VVER-440 reactors there, but in 1990 Moscow curtailed cooperation and headed for relations with Seoul.
IAEA, NPT, KEDO, then without stops
By that time, gasographite nuclear reactors were being built in Yongbyon. The first of these with a capacity of 5 MW began to operate in 1986. The second 50 MW reactor was laid down in 1985. In 1989, work began on a third, 200 MW capacity in the Taecheon area. The technical documentation for these projects was obtained through the IAEA.
In January 1992, North Korea entered into an agreement with the IAEA on measures to control its nuclear facilities in the country (a safeguards agreement) and signed the Declaration on the Nuclear-Free Status of the Korean Peninsula with South Korea. The US said it had removed its nuclear weapons from South Korea by this time.
In May 1992, the DPRK adopted the first IAEA inspections. That's where it all started! The inspectors confirmed the production of plutonium "in less quantities than is required to create nuclear weapons, but in more than the DPRK claimed earlier." The claim of "only 90 grams" of plutonium for research purposes has been questioned. The IAEA demanded additional inspections in Yongbyon, Pyongyang rejected the demand, in 1993 announced the start of the procedure for withdrawing from the NPT, and in 1994 withdrew from the IAEA.
A hoax called a "compromise"
The crisis would seem to have been resolved in October 1994, when the Framework Agreement with the United States was signed in Geneva, according to which the DPRK stopped the development of nuclear energy by freezing five nuclear facilities, including the only experimental graphite moderator reactor in operation at that time in Yongbyon. The construction of two 50 and 200 MW power units was resumed after fulfilling obligations under the IAEA Safeguards Agreement. Pyongyang's withdrawal from the NPT was also suspended.
In exchange of the USA "promised" to construct two light-water reactors and before their input to deliver fuel oil for development of the scarce electric power. The International organization of assistance to development of power industry of Korea (KEDO) which included the USA, the EU, Japan and South Korea was created. The program was calculated for five years. By the beginning of 2003 the Pyongyang stated that the project isn't implemented and renewed the nuclear program. In January, 2003 the DPRK decided to leave finally both the NNPT, and the Agreement on guarantees with IAEA. In other words, the situation with the nuclear program of Pyongyang returned on ten years ago.
Washington hoped that in ten years of cabals of the USA the North Korean regime will weaken, can even fail. But the power in the DPRK resisted, even showed tendency to compromises. In August, 2003, six-party talks on settlement of crisis with participation of the USA, the People's Republic of China, Southern Korea, Russia and Japan began. In April, 2009, after six meetings, the DPRK declared their senselessness. This time, time was won by Pyongyang.
Time was won
In February, 2005 the DPRK declared presence at her of nuclear weapon, "intended only for self-defense and control", on October 9, 2006 conducted the first underground nuclear test. By the western estimates, its power was less than a kiloton in a trotyl equivalent. Then five more tests followed: On May 25, 2009, February 12, 2013, on January 6 and on September 9, 2016 and on September 3, 2017.
The fourth and sixth tests were declared how thermonuclear. The leader of the country Kim Jong-un called a new compact thermonuclear warhead "break". There was a technical capability of installation of a nuclear charge on intercontinental ballistic missiles which launches Pyongyang carried out since 2006. In April, 2012 the possession of nuclear weapon and means of his delivery was enshrined in the constitution of the country. On January 1, 2018 Kim Jong-un said in a New Year's televised address to the nation about "completion of creation of national nuclear forces of the country".
The first test of a North Korean nuclear charge caused resolution 1718 of UNSC of October 14, 2006 providing economic and commercial sanctions, embargo on deliveries to the DPRK of types of arms, materials and the equipment which could promote the programs connected with nuclear weapon to rocket and other military technologies.
Sanctions didn't help
The UNSC still repeatedly toughened a sanctions regime up to December, 2017. In the DPRK kind of I responded to these measures, headed for de-escalation. In April, 2018 Kim Jong-un announced suspension of nuclear tests, assured that he won't transfer nuclear weapon and technologies to other countries. In May the DPRK closed the nuclear Pkhungeri test site, having blown up three of four technological a tunnel.
In January, 2020 the authorities of the DPRK stated that they won't observe the unilateral moratorium on test nuclear weapon and test flights of intercontinental ballistic missiles any more. Speaking at a meeting of the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK in September, 2022, Kim Jong-un noted that possession of nuclear weapon is legitimate and inalienable right of the country and negotiations on a denuclearization won't be.
According to the Nikkei newspaper, North Korea achieved improvement of characteristics of the rockets, having transferred some of them to solid fuel and having applied the systems of complication of a trajectory of flight and maneuvering. In the current year the DPRK launched not less than 28 missiles that exceeded maximum semi-annual an indicator of 2019. Sanctions didn't help and so far nobody can tell that it is possible to make to avoid the nuclear conflict to which not only Washington, but also Pyongyang is ready now.
And the similarity of the reasons for the conflict remained
In Ukraine, business wouldn't reach special operation if the western countries properly reacted to the ideas offered by Russia concerning security guarantees for the Russian Federation and return of NATO to borders of 1997 for Novaya Gazeta of Europe. Such point of view was voiced by the head of department of foreign policy planning of the MFA Aleksei Drobinin in a conversation with the Mezhdunarodnaya Zhizn magazine.
But the countries of the West structurally refused to approach the offers of Moscow on security guarantees made in December, 2021. According to the representative of diplomatic department, thanks to special operation those changes which already began to happen in the world considerably accelerated. Thanks to special operation the foundation for multipolar world order is laid, Drobinin emphasized during The Vis-a-vis with the World program.
But Europe is not limited to security and world order. There are problems similar to the causes of the conflict in Ukraine in Beijing's relations with Taipei, as well as in relations between North Korea and South Korea. As it is not difficult to guess, this is a problem of divided peoples.
In Northeast Asia, imperialist Japan took a direct part in creating these acute problems. After the end of World War II, the US picked up the baton of aggression, dominance and pressure. They picked up and managed to aggravate relations to the extreme, both in the Taiwan Strait and along the 38th parallel. Only in the second case did the smoldering conflict acquire a nuclear dimension.