"Winter winds" from the West
So-called "anti-recessionary" managers of the western diplomacy surpassed themselves, wishing to seed the conflict in the center of Europe.
All guess, politicians and heads of the companies, editors-in-chief of media and heads of intelligence agencies, Ministers of Defence and presidents. The main subject of an intrigue – the Ukrainian crisis which touched already and Zelensky's fate, as the president, and the system of central heating of the cities of Ukraine is reported by the correspondent of The Moscow Post.
In the center of crisis - Donbass and plans of administration of Zelensky to take in hand by force discordant the Kiev power of LPR and the DPR. Information preparation already goes, its orientation isn't even camouflaged. Whether it will be the planned attack of AFU or a sortie of detached battalions, the essence of provokers reactionaries from it doesn't change.
Moscow has to be ready to the sharpest attacks, charges, sanctions and intrigues of the West.
The forecast – business ungrateful
Many observers incline to a thought that in it and there is a plan of opponents of the Minsk Agreement: to provoke the conflict, under cover of the excited NATO. But, in addition a decisive step of Kiev to "European integration", calculations on drawing a line between "Muscovites" and the West are made.
Though Ukraine as "Georgia 2.0" represents only an episode in the relations of Russia with the collective West, Kiev top can be used to try to provoke present foreign policy of Moscow, foreign economic relations of Russia, and maybe the European deep interests.
In the relations of Russia with the western countries "very conflict potential" collected, - Sergei Lavrov, at a meeting with media following the results of the enlarged meeting of board told the MFA of Russia with participation of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. For the minister this statement, quite rare on sharpness. The Russian president added that the countries of the West began to listen to concerns and preventions that the "known tension" which arose at NATO member states needs to be kept as long as possible for safety.
We will recognize that public prevention is made and the hope for search of a rational way to sanitation of "the conflict potential" isn't lost. The Russian President's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov reported about hopes "until the end of the year, this communication (summit of Russian Presidents and the USA] will be able to take place", but date isn't defined.
"To look in the future it is too far — shortsightedly". Once thus I spoke attempts to do forecasts Winston Churchill. Him, to put it mildly the difficult attitude towards Russians, Russia and the Soviet Union, didn't prevent him to notice unreliability of decisions at which there are emotions.
In volatile Europe somehow forgot partially that Russia is a self-sufficient system. And from "gas interdependence" with Moscow it is so simple to European Union not to leave. And matter not only in air conditioning in houses, hotel rooms and shopping centers of Brussels. The German industry, the European infrastructure, cross-border production chains, a way of life can suffer, at last.
Partners "with a musty smell - with"
The states successors united in EvroNATOsoyuz try to solve "problem" of Post-Soviet Russia. The USA together with the euro-satellite dawned "democratic" banners of Biden calls Russia the main enemy. Monitor movements of the Russian army in the Russian territory, find new reasons for sanctions, increase strategic uncertainty, provoke the conflicts to peripheries of the Russian Federation and "develop new territories", including Ukraine. Everything becomes to bring closer forces of NATO to the centers of command, control and management, to reduce "approach time".
Acting on board of the MFA, Vladimir Putin set the task: "It is already necessary to ask, Sergei Viktorovich, it is necessary to ask about trying to obtain granting serious long-term guarantees of ensuring our safety to Russia on this (western) direction".
Diplomacy isn't exhausted by diplomats with "smiles under masks". The general Valery Gerasimov and the Chairman of the Committee of chiefs of headquarters general Mark Millie as the chief staff officers, discussed the issues connected with safety too. Dialogue with the American inexperienced colleague was entered also by Nikolay Patrushev, by phone so far. The head of the CIA who turned gray over the years "because of Putin" came to a meeting with the head of SVR once again to look at the losing weight structure of the Moscow residency.
But Russia continues to deal with, "to put it mildly, not really reliable partners: they easily refuse any former arrangements", - Vladimir Putin told. Perhaps, in these conditions, dialogue of military and intelligence agencies can increase reliability of the relations?
Exercises in Russian language and legislation
The White House is emphasized, if not painfully, concerned about the integrity of Ukraine, threats to its sovereignty. The United States widely and actively broadcasts this concern both in the media and in multilateral formats, including allies. They check, according to the State Department, "watches with allies." Unfortunately, in the post-Soviet direction, American diplomacy has become more of a tool for destabilizing and undermining relations than a beacon for politicians, a catalyst for solving problems. If anyone doubts, meet Victoria Nuland's "exercises" in geopolitics.
In post-Soviet relations between Russia and the United States, signs of incompatibility began to pierce the thin fabric of the "partnership" quite early. In the form of "information silence," when in 1993 tanks fired from the Novoarbatsky bridge. When, during the celebration of the anniversary of the landing of the Allied troops in Normandy, the role of the USSR and the Eastern Front was stubbornly silent. The power of the "second front" did not want to be a "sophomore" country and, in this role, avoided even mentioning the former ally.
Interacting with the US State Department was not easy even in 2008, when the Declaration on the Strategic Framework of Russian-American Relations was adopted. At the same time, the United States slowed down Russia's entry into the WTO and the OECD, Moscow sought the abolition of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. The agreement on cooperation in the field of the peaceful use of nuclear energy, submitted for ratification in May, was withdrawn in September due to "Russia's actions in the Caucasus." The Bush White House began to freeze contacts following the conflict in South Ossetia and took the side of Tbilisi in the conflict.
The United States shied away from making the INF Treaty universal. Missile defense remained the most pressing issue of bilateral relations. Attempts were made to militarize the Black Sea and, judging by the reports of the Russian Foreign Ministry, even Central Asia. At the NATO summit in June 2004 in Istanbul, the organization announced plans to pay special attention to cooperation with the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
The Foreign Ministry even then fixed the roll of the White House towards the policy of "selective interaction with selective containment." The non-proliferation of nuclear weapons remained the only non-controversial area.
In the report of the Russian Foreign Ministry for 2013, there was still hope for "mutual respect and a partnership approach," there were still plans to transition to a visa-free short-term travel regime. Two meetings of heads of state were held, contacts in the 2 plus 2 format resumed, and a decision was reached to place Syrian chemical weapons under international control. Moscow facilitated US military transit to Afghanistan, supplied helicopters for the Afghan army. But in the same year, the Magnitsky Law was adopted, replacing the Jackson-Venik amendment. Moscow noted Washington's attempts to influence the domestic political situation in Russia.
In response to Snowden's "case," the White House threatened to "pause" in relations, did not agree to the deployment in the United States of eight measuring stations of the GLONASS navigation system. " The application of American laws and court decisions to the territory of other states has been expanded. There were threats to block foreign exchange transactions of Russian companies legally operating in Iran, Syria and the DPRK. The United States deployed a missile defense system, increased non-nuclear assets suitable for the first "lightning strike."
Gates "do not pour champagne anymore"
What is happening today in Ukraine, in the region of the Black, Baltic, Okhotsk and Japan Seas can be considered as a logical continuation of the line laid back in 1992. In October 1992, CIA chief Richard Gates walked through Red Square, whipping champagne from a bottle. Celebrated. It seemed to him a mini-victory parade. Gates in March 2008 once again visited Moscow, already as Secretary of Defense and in the company of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The meeting was held in the format of "2 plus 2," but the dialogue was reduced to general issues, to "move forward." Ahead was Georgia and a blow to Russian peacekeepers and South Ossetia, even further - Ukraine with a euro-maidan.
The dialogue with US diplomats continued, but rolled along the inclined. Russia was required to be strategically predictable in return for negotiations. The simple approach is to get some obligations, to make life easier for yourself. Then suggest what has recently been taken away - the predictability of Ukraine, for example. Or readiness to follow the Minsk agreements. Whether this can be believed is not up to us. But the main intrigue of dialogue with the United States and its allies is that the West betrays its own principles. Ukraine is a classic example of such an exchange.
The lesson has not been learned. Playing from the beginning
Remember what Churchill once said?
"And then my mind returns years ago, in the days when the Russian troops were our ally against the same mortal enemy, when they fought with great courage and firmness and helped to win, the fruits of which, alas, they were not allowed to take advantage, although not through our fault... the danger that threatens Russia is a threat to us and a threat to the United States, and in the same way, the business of every Russian who fights for his home and hearth is the business of all free people and peoples in all parts of the world. So let's learn the lessons that we have already been taught by cruel experience, "Winston Churchill said in his radio address on June 22, 1941 about Hitler's invasion, the role and place of Russia in two world wars. In 1941, the news of Russia's participation in the war was perceived by London as a salvation, a sign from above!
As we see today, the lessons were never learned, but were forgotten or rewritten to new conditions. The novelty is that Russia has gained strategic independence. But this does not get along well with what American diplomats call a dialogue on strategic predictability and stability. In parallel, without any dialogue, there is a search for points of vulnerability in other areas. Pressure on these points the United States is engaged in. This, in particular, is Ukraine in the arms of the Nazis, whom Europe does not notice.