When "abroad" will not help Pashinyan
Why didn't Armenia become the second Israel?
According to the correspondent of The Moscow Post a National Salvation Committee has been established in Yerevan. Behind it there are forces opposed to the current Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, who many blame for the heavy defeat in the war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Yesterday, a series of rallies were held in Yerevan, which ended with the storming and almost looting of the Parliament, and with it the residence of Nikol Pashinyan himself. The latter is referred to there as a "national traitor" who surrendered state interests and failed to organize the defense of Nagorno-Karabakh.
This war, the second in a row, not taking into account a number of clashes since 1994, ended as suddenly as it began. After the capture of the ancient fortress of Shushi in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) by Azerbaijani forces, the fall of the entire Armenian Artsakh into the hands of the Azerbaijani Army became a matter of time.
In this situation, Nikol Pashinyan, in fact, had no choice. Either lose the whole of Artsakh with its capital in Stepanakert, or keep it, a number of other districts and people's lives, but lose those territories that were already controlled by the Azerbaijani army, supported by the Turks.
That is, either a further war with an even more shameful defeat, or ask for help from the CSTO ally Russia, which would act as a guarantor of agreements with Ilham Aliev on the new "partition" of Karabakh. Aliev himself today went so far as to declare the past war to be "Patriotic". Moreover, he said that he would seek material compensation from Armenia for the damage caused to these territories. His words are quoted by RBC.
At the same time, it was initially clear that Russia, within the framework of the CSTO, would not interfere in the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Karabakh. After all, the Treaty applies only to the territory of Armenia, while Artsakh is recognized by the international community as the territory of Azerbaijan.
As a result, Putin met both Pashinyan and Aliev halfway to stop the bloodshed. This is a great victory for Azerbaijan even without taking Stepanakert. This is a shameful defeat for Armenia, even if the capital of the unrecognized territories is preserved.
But until recently, Armenia under Pashinyan was positioned as almost a "second Israel". "Surrounded by "ill-wishers" and counting on the support of foreign partners" - the authors of the nashaarmenia" website claimed that the ruling elites were supposed to look at the country from such positions. Why didn't Armenia succeed?
The answer can be found in the same text of Nasha Armenia, where the authors rely on US President Donald Trump, who, according to them, could offer a settlement of the Karabakh conflict similar to the US efforts to resolve the conflict in Palestine.
And the whole point is here: while Israel, accepting US assistance, initially counted and counts only on its own strength, Armenia is trying to push the solution of its problems to other, stronger players.
This has always been the case since Armenia gained independence after the collapse of the USSR. The country "struggled" in the fairway of weakened Russia, then sought support in the West. In other words, only the modality changed. In 2018, when Pashinyan came to power, as it is believed, as a result of a kind of "colour revolution", such rhetoric turned with even greater force against Russia in the direction of the United States. Will "abroad" help? It didn’t.
As the Express Gazeta wrote, even then, in 2018, Pashinyan was literally surrounded by "American" officials.
Judge for yourself, Ararat Mirzoyan, coordinator of the electoral systems Foundation, was associated with the American organization named Foundation for Defence of Democracies. Defense Minister David Tonoyan was previously Armenia's permanent representative to NATO. Foreign Minister of 2018 Zohrab Mnatsakanyan is a graduate of the faculty of political science at the University of Manchester. Justice Minister Artak Zeynalyan was an observer in the US presidential election. The list goes on.
The country remained a member of the CSTO, which it joined in 1992. And with a clear desire for Russia to be able to protect the interests of Armenia in the same Nagorno-Karabakh. When he came to power, Pashinyan actively used Pro-Western slogans, but then softened the rhetoric. After all, Armenia simply could not survive without Russia's economic and military assistance.
Despite this, as the authors of the Rubaltic.ru website state, allegedly diversification of foreign relations and strengthening of the Western vector became the main feature of Pashinyan's foreign policy.
The Prime Minister called the West the country's main partner in liberal reforms, brought European advisers to Yerevan, activated the country's participation in the EU's Eastern partnership program, declared a strategic partnership with the United States, and told voters about the imminent establishment of a visa-free regime between Armenia and Europe. There is one thing in common in these moves - an attempt to throw the problems and responsibility for the fate of their country and people on the shoulders of stronger neighbours, "patrons".
If we draw analogies with Israel, the Israeli state at one time arose with the direct support of the Soviet Union. According to rumours, Stalin really wanted the grateful inhabitants of Israel, who were saved in World War II and received their state, to follow in the fairway of Soviet policy.
But Israel didn't want that. As a result, it, surrounded by many enemies, was able to survive in a series of Arab-Israeli wars, including the Yom Kippur War. And Armenia under Aliev could not stand against one, even if it was supported by Turkey.
Under Pashinyan, this maneuvering from Russia to the West, from the West to Russia, began to be called the fashionable word "multi-vector". But this was just a screen and PR. On the one hand, Armenia counted on Russia's military support, without strengthening the defense capability of Artsakh, and at the same time courted European embassies in anticipation of visa-free travel and economic assistance.
This led to its utter collapse, and it could not lead to anything else. The key question is, what's next? After the destruction of Soros' office in Yerevan last night and the demands for Pashinyan's resignation, Pro-Western rhetoric can be forgotten.
Whose arms will Armenia throw itself into now?