The triple coalition went "over three seas"
Russia's leading political partners, primarily China and India, are under coordinated Western pressure. Beijing - direct attacks and intimidation of secondary sanctions, New Delhi - persuasion not to cooperate with Moscow and various promises from the United States, London and Brussels.
The situation is developing in a dangerous direction, according to an international columnist for The Moscow Post. The interests of economic stability are inferior to the interests of confrontation and destabilization of Russia.
Military ministers in their statements lose borders. The US Secretary of Defense declares his desire to weaken Russia with the conflict in Ukraine. The British Secretary of Defense reminds Moscow that NATO is a nuclear alliance, and Britain, on occasion, is ready to use these weapons.
The president of nuclear France is ready to accuse Russia, along with Iran and North Korea, of "destabilization," and China of refusing to take the side of the West in the conflict in Ukraine. Australia's defence minister suspects China of "growing ambition" by comparing the PRC to "Nazi Germany."
The risks of nuclear war are now very significant, this danger cannot be underestimated, but there are many who are ready to artificially inflate this threat, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He also believes that Ukraine is deliberately delaying the negotiation process, and Western countries are trying to devalue the veto at the UN.
The hasty "departure" of the United States and NATO from Afghanistan is almost forgotten. NATO's war with Russia in Ukraine came to the fore. China and Taiwan are on the horizon. The risk of losing the island's chip industry is comparable to breaking the deadly "Koschey needle."
All the king's men
It seems that, having failed to intimidate Russia in Ukraine with a de facto confrontation with NATO, the West suffers a fit of political powerlessness. Moreover, it is annoying that it is impossible to drag China and India and other countries into the anti-Russian coalition.
The West gives India special importance. New Delhi's "correct" behavior towards Russia today promises its loyalty in the "Indo-Pacific NATO" conflict with China tomorrow. Hence the visits of the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leinen (April 24-25), British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (April 21-23), Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (April 11-13).
The head of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, called on India, Asian countries and the Indo-Pacific region to support the blockade of Russia. With this, she "enriched" the content of the international conference "Raisin Dialogue," which opened on April 25 in New Delhi. Von der Leyen noted that Brussels sees the special operation in the Donbass as a direct threat to its security and with all its might will seek a strategic defeat for Russia.
The conference was organised by the Indian Foreign Ministry and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) think tank. "India will always advocate an international order that is truly rules-based, but one in which no one can circumvent the rules to please the powerful," says the ORF chairman.
Foreign Minister S Jaishankar called the conference "an opportunity to discuss big ideas defining new global realities,... to question common dogmas about the international system and encourage future-oriented thinking, "the minister said in a conference booklet.
Meanwhile, the Indian government ordered to stop fakes and false information threatening "relations with friendly countries." The authorities warned that they could "ban the broadcast of any channel" in the event of the publication of fakes. This was a reaction to the materials of some Indian media, criticizing the actions of Russia in Ukraine and calling for the curtailment of cooperation with Moscow.
Circulation for "three seas"
The British prime minister Boris Johnson, being in New Delhi some days before the visit of Mrs. von der Leien false I assured that he isn't disturbed by divergences with a position of India concerning Russia. Following the results of a visit the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Harsh Vardhan Shringla reported that "the parties agreed not to agree" and reminded that New Delhi "actively supported the termination of violence and resolution of conflict".
The Minister of Foreign Affairs Lise Trass prior to a visit hinted India at undesirability of purchases of the Russian oil. In reply the head of diplomatic service of India S. Dzhayshankar answered that India will continue to cooperate with Russia, having pointed to hypocrisy of the leading countries of the West in an issue of import of the Russian energy carriers which in 2020 imported more than 2 million barrels a day.
As the Minister of Foreign Affairs of India S. Dzhayshankar said: "I think, we have to choose whose party to accept, and it is our party". The The Economic Times edition writes about unwillingness of the Indian authorities to support the anti-Russian sanctions that India will be guided only by national interests.
But Johnson's reception in India was followed by flowers, dances, a distaff to "charkh" and a turban from under which looked through ears of collective Anglo-Saxons. Activists of the State of Gujarat, from where the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi is, reminded the overseas guest as 1919 the British troops shot hundreds of locals.
The U.S. President Biden also urged India to limit import of oil from Russia, offering the prime minister Modi the help with energy carriers. "Business, appears, is connected with geopolitics!", - British shared "opening", having suggested to refuse on behalf of "civilized countries" contacts with Moscow.
In exchange the British prime minister promised New Delhi the free-trade agreement and favorable contracts, military cooperation and technologies, including fighters and ship engines for the ships of the Indian Naval Forces. Having thanked for care, interlocutors "reported" successful test of the supersonic Bramos rocket with use of the SU-30 fighter, showing results of cooperation with Russia.
India and "big lame table"
The U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited India with an official visit to Boris Johnson. India - the participant of Indo-Pacific "Square" (QUAD) - dialogue on safety with participation of the USA, Japan and Australia. Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and even Taiwan can become candidates for membership. The purpose of QUAD is to constrain China.
Blinken said that the USA is ready to become for India the preferable partner in trade, technologies, education and safety issues. The Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said that he conducts negotiations with India on military modernization, prepares for exchange of information in the space sphere, to production of the UAV, cooperation on the line of Naval Forces.
The prime minister of India Narendra Modi always frostily treated "embraces" of the West, especially the USA, and to pressure directed to avoiding traditional partners, especially Russia and also Iran. During the telephone conversation of Modi with Biden, during negotiations of Ministers of Defence and foreign affairs of two countries in format 2+2 it became clear that "India supports peaceful solution of the Ukrainian conflict, but isn't going to do something contrary to the interests". The leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi refrained from criticism of Russia too.
The conflict of Russia and NATO in Ukraine leads to tectonic shifts in the world, - Subramanya (Rupa Subramanya), the coauthor of the book "Indianomics claims Rupp: Judgment of modern India". While the USA and NATO turned finance into weapon, developing countries are forced to be defined.
Many in India note that unlike China, the country isn't presented at "A big table" of permanent members of the UN Security Council. But the table is unsteady. The head of the Russian diplomatic service Sergei Lavrov said about it in a conversation with the UN Secretary-General Antoniu Guterrish. He mentioned attempts of creation of alternative partnership and alliances for discussion of key questions of international policy outside the UN, complained that UN Security Council resolutions remain indifferently her secretariat.
"We spoke about the fate of the UN in general, about those attempts of our western colleagues, first of all, to take out discussion of key questions for a framework of universal formats under the auspices of the UN and its system, to produce various partnership, various appeals which are presented as club of "leaders", club of the elite", - Lavrov told.
Johnson, Biden and Modi imagine absolutely different world orders. For Biden it is the liberal economic and geopolitical order led by the USA and such countries as Great Britain. India, Brazil and South Africa consider it as preservation of world order, - Subramanya considers Rupp.
"Crisis generated improbable anomalies when the prime minister of Pakistan Imran Khan who faced a vote of no confidence at home eulogizes a neutral position of India in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Such praise from the leader of Pakistan to India – it is unprecedented", - the expert said.
Another well-known political scientist Brahma Chellaney says that Johnson-Biden's concerted efforts to persuade countries to join the anti-Russian coalition are reminiscent of the words of anti-apartheid leader Nelson Mandela that "the mistake the West is making is to insist that his enemies should be our enemies." According to Cellani, the neutrality of the largest democracy in the world undermines the US thesis that the conflict symbolizes the "battle of democracies with autocracy."
And all this is happening, despite the fact that India is conducting more military exercises with the United States than any other country. Sales of American weapons in 2020 rose to $20 billion. Bilateral trade in goods and services is an order of magnitude more than trade with Russia. But India does not organically tolerate Washington's threats over the "significant and long-term costs and consequences" that come from Biden's team and which Johnson also recalled during his visit.
This kind of forceful effort to drag New Delhi into building an anti-Russian coalition undermines the foundations of partnership, some Indian observers say and remind that India remained neutral even as the US and its allies invaded Iraq or launched a war for regime change in Libya.
New Delhi also remembers well how American sanctions against Iran undermined relations with Tehran. The Biden-Johnson coalition would now like to undermine ties with Moscow, force India to switch to American hydrocarbons. The Indian political leadership cannot but see that Washington and London intend to use sanctions against Russia to weaken New Delhi's defense ties with Moscow, to switch India to NATO weapons systems.
They recall in this regard how Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman told Congress that the United States sees an "excellent opportunity" for a "sharp increase" in defense sales to India.
Assessing India's position in the region, Indian observers note that Biden and the Western coalition actually "surrendered" Afghanistan to the Taliban, thereby strengthening Pakistan. The US, they say, is pushing sanctions policy Myanmar into China's arms.
In this sense, much will make clear the dynamics of relations within the Indo-Pacific "square" and what role India will choose for itself in QUAD. If this design is combined with the Australia-UK-US partnership (AUKUS), it would mean actual NATO migration to Asia. So far, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in dialogue with his Australian counterpart Morrison, has asked Australia to respect its own commitment "not to develop nuclear weapons and maintain the highest standards of non-proliferation."
Russia and India have gained experience
Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov assured that Russia and India have accumulated experience in cooperation and transactions independent of Western financial mechanisms. President of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations A. Sakthivel told the Financial Times that while "other countries prohibit exports to Russia, it is a good time for Indian exporters to enter the Russian market."
In 2015, New Delhi announced its intention to purchase Russian anti-aircraft missile systems S-400. The contract for the supply of five regimental sets of Triumph S-400 systems worth $5.43 billion was signed during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India in October 2018.
Russia can provide India in the field of defense with everything it wants, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday last week.
"In terms of defence, we can provide India with whatever it wants. As for the transfer of technology in the field of defense cooperation, [the level] is essentially unprecedented compared to other partners of India, "he said, answering a question about the possibility of supplying S-400 complexes for India.
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