Not cancelled: The western sanctions "broke" at the St. Petersburg forum
"The global purpose of our work - ensuring economic sovereignty of the Russian Federation. At the country enough own resources to continue development, ignoring all attempts us somehow to detain, stop, at all to turn back", - the prime minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Mishustin said, speaking at the anniversary PIEF-2022 which opened on June 15 in St. Petersburg.
"We see now how all these of restriction, sanctions which are imposed beat the prices of power, of food and so on. We see results of errors of many countries which are shown in the beginning food crisis", - the press secretary of the head of state Dmitry Peskov said in an interview to TASS, having promised that Vladimir Putin's speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum will be "extremely important". For participation in a forum more than 3000 representatives of the companies and business associations were declared. The main subject - "The New World — New Opportunities", the correspondent of The Moscow Post reports.
The sanctions imposed counting on Rossi's weakening / and, painfully beat interests even of those states that stand on top of a pyramid of "unfriendly one billion". Russia still is in the trade and economic relations with these members of "Seven" which declared, according to the first Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, creation of "blockade from several rings" - financial, trade, transport and humanitarian.
Moreover, Moscow avoids temptation so far to cause to the opponent irreplaceable economic damage. Though in the Kremlin the events are called economic war, similar which wasn't yet. Move Russia own interests and something else that it is difficult to explain, there can be an unwillingness to destroy once constructed. In this regard someone with irony offered: "Don't touch, give a shovel, they to themselves will dig everything!".
As it was made, for example, recently by Tokyo preferring sanctions of an opportunity for fishermen of Hokkaido to continue trade within the fishing quota allocated by the Russian side at coast of the Russian Southern Kurils. The Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District Yury Trutnev and told: "Japanese well punish themselves, they even shouldn't be helped".
In response of Moscow in relation to the collective West there is no desire more painfully to press ideologists of "a suffocation of Russia" though in some areas an opportunity to make it is. The Russian resources, partially (and so far) delivered on the West, to local contractors to replace there is nothing. For example, without palladium there can be BMW plants in Bavaria, without uranium for the NPP in Eastern Europe and the USA it is necessary to disconnect a fan electricity in densely populated regions of "democracies of the western type".
As the head of committee of the Federation Council of the constitutional legislation Andrei Klishas said, without the Russian palladium all carmakers "will quickly leave on a bottom". So it, or not, but senator suggested to export nickel, platinum and palladium for rubles as natural gas. He also suggested to pay in rubles of supply of grain and fertilizers. It would be possible to add to this list uranium, aluminum and many other things.
If I am rich as the tsar sea
The government considers that in Russia there was a unique situation with investment resources, there is a lot of them. According to the first Deputy Prime Minister Belousov, "before blockade a considerable part of investment resources left the country in the form of dividends which were paid in other countries, in other jurisdictions". Today there is a task to increase capital investments to accelerate development, to come to 3% of GDP growth no later than 2024, to reduce poverty.
According to Belousov, in NWF it is saved up by about 12.5 trillion rubles, a part about 9 trillion rubles are already invested in certain assets, but for investments "more or less freely". In investment projects from means of NWF it is invested about 1.6 trillion rubles.
The Bank of Russia continues to publish information on GCR though without specification as earlier. The Ministry of Economic Development I suggested to protect information. For May 27 of GCR of Russia made 589.6 billion dollars. In the conditions of economic war when the Central Bank lost access to a part of reserves to euro and dollars, gold becomes capital asset.
There can be a platinum and palladium too can be used for this purpose? The palladium price fell on June 16 up to 1822 dollars for troy ounce, that is the lowest level since January 6. For comparison, the gold price was 1831 dollar for troy ounce on the same day. In March, palladium rose in price up to 3289 dollars for ounce - a maximum on fears of interruptions in deliveries. The troy ounce of gold then cost 1970 dollars. In May-June, 2021, the price of palladium fluctuated within 2.5-2.9 thousand dollars for ounce.
Mines my uranium …
Containment policy and weakening of Russia - the long-term strategy of the West. Power opposition with the USA and NATO in the territory from Donetsk to Lviv continues. Fixation on russophobia works, deliveries of mercenaries and weapon to Kiev go, assets are frozen. But in this imposed "economic special operation" which in the USA was christened "infernal sanctions" Russia so far without need of the opponent doesn't cripple.
If it is war which is waged by the West, it is directed to total self-destruction, then "the gold one billion" can be helped with it. The question is in where these points of vulnerability at partner opponents? To continue to accumulate dollars and euro at Moscow more need seems isn't present, but it is possible to create reserves of platinum, palladium and uranium to answer economic pressure. Unlike natural gas and oil, these export products can be stored and accumulated, without interrupting production.
The U.S. Administration is already ready for that the local NPPs refused import of the Russian fuel. The White House considers sanctions against the Russian enriched uranium, calling it dependence and vulnerability for power. Purchases of the enriched uranium at the local companies will cost treasury 4.5 billion dollars. The administration directed the offer on allocation of this money to create state company for purchases of uranium at the producers.
But in the USA there is only one plant on conversion of uranium in the State of Illinois preserved since November, 2017. His restart depends on investments and guarantees of stable demand. Other enterprise for uranium enrichment is in New Mexico and belongs to the international consortium. Capacities of conversion and uranium enrichment are in Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Britain. But there is no confidence that they will be enough to replace the Russian deliveries.
And they are considerable: in 2020 Russia possessed 40% of world capacities for processing and 46% of capacities for uranium enrichment. In supply of the American nuclear power plants in 2020 16.5% of the import processed and 23% of import of the enriched uranium were the share of the Russian Federation. Reactors in the USA the uranium enriched up to 3-5% is used. The HALEY uranium enriched up to 15-19%, used in modern reactors can be received only from Russia. The ban on import to call some projects into question.
From 439 operating reactors, in Russia work the 38th nuclear reactor, 42 are constructed in other countries, including Ukraine and Belarus. Rosatom builds 15 more reactors abroad. In 28 states of the USA 93 reactors with a general power more than 96 GW are installed. All but three NPPs are east of the State of Utah, the share of atomic generation in the northeast State of Pennsylvania approaches 40%, in an energy balance of New YoHempshir she exceeds 50%, in South Carolina makes 58%, in Tennessee – 40%, in Maryland which is partially including suburbs of Washington, this share makes 43%.
According to the report of non-governmental organizations Friends of the Earth Germany (BUND), Fonda of the nuclear-free future, Fund of Rosa Luxemburg, Greenpeace and Ausgestrahlt, the European NPPs depend on import of the Russian uranium not less. In 2020 the EU covered the needs for uranium at the expense of Russia for 20%, received 19% from Kazakhstan.
In to Eastern Europe 18 nuclear reactors use six-sided heat-generating assemblies which to them are delivered by Rosatom. According to the German operator Preussen Elektra, three reactors in Germany also use the Russian and Kazakhstan uranium. But the problem of dependence of Europe on Rosatom wasn't discussed.
Not palladium uniform
Can refuse the Russian uranium of the USA and. With palladium too everything is difficult, but sanctions kind of weren't imposed yet. This metal is crucial in production of catalysts for filtration of exhaust gases of petrol engines of the car. His replacement by platinum will demand time and considerable investments into research and development. In March the EU bought up about a quarter of volumes of the palladium extracted by Norilsk Nickel in the first quarter.
According to Eurostat, Europe bought in Russia 164 thousand troy ounces of palladium for 407 million euros. The main volume fell on Germany-115.7 thousand ounces for 297 million euros. The remains were bought by Italy. The share of the Russian Federation in import of palladium of the USA makes 35%.
Russia and South Africa control 80% of world production of palladium. 40% fall to the share of the Russian Federation. Norilsk Nickel is the leading producer of this metal, chemical concern BASF SE – his key client. In 2021 the share of the EU in the revenue of Norilsk Nickel made 52% (17 billion dollars), in proceeds from palladium sales - 42% (6.6 billion dollars). The company didn't fall under sanctions, but there are other restrictions.
London raised the customs duties, since April the Russian palladium is removed from "the list of good delivery" of the London association of the market of precious metals (LBMA). Palladium supply also faced interruptions in air traffic. Global demand for this metal will grow this year by 3%, the deficiency can be 0.1-0.2 million ounces. Norilsk Nickel looks for partners, including in the People's Republic of China.
Nornickel exports palladium under contracts. In 2022, the company plans to deliver 2.4-2.7 million ounces of palladium to the market, by 2030 it intends to supply volumes sufficient for 25-40 million catalysts. On average, 1-2 grams of palladium is used for one car with a gasoline engine.
Among other industries that consume palladium are electronics (about 5%), the chemical industry (up to 12%). In the platinum market, Russia's share is slightly more than 10%. This metal is used in the automotive industry in diesel engine catalysts. Georgette Boele estimates that palladium and platinum demand from the automotive industry can be expected to decline by 2040, but demand for platinum group metals from the jewelry, electronics and chemical industries could grow.
The authors of the study "Energy Transition Metals" predict the role of nickel as one of the four most popular metals. Nickel is necessary for the production of energy storage and equipment for obtaining electricity from renewable sources, for geothermal and nuclear energy. In terms of income, nickel producers in the next two to three decades can be equal to oil companies. Norilsk Nickel believes that this year the global nickel market will be the buyer's market, the demand for refined nickel will lag behind the supply by 40 thousand tons.
Borrell to barrel one step
The founders in Brussels, multilingual, but equally stubborn, are working on the seventh package of sanctions. They do this, despite the fact that the "regulatory tools" used in NATO are not suitable for the economy. Each EU country has its own "oil and gas" situation, it is necessary to make exceptions. Fluctuations in gas prices could weaken the unity of the front of Western countries in relations with Russia. The Wall Street Journal wrote about this on Wednesday. The Freeport LNG terminal in Texas after the fire will resume work by 2023, LNG exports to Europe will be limited. Also, Siemens has not yet been able to return the gas pumping unit of the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline from repair.
The leading countries of the "golden billion" have accumulated dissimilar problems, common mistakes, and original quirks. The general problem is inflation close to 7-9% and associated with energy scenes. The quirk of the White House is the "Putin" increase in gas prices. Japan and Germany have their own problems. Tokyo, which fought off the supply of Sakhalin gas through the gas pipeline, is concerned about the future of Sakhalin LNG. Berlin, on the contrary, replaces Gazprom with LNG supplies.
Especially "suffers" London, which has more sovereignty compared to the EU countries, but less industry. According to OECD estimates, British GDP was supposed to grow by 4.7% this year, but may only reach 3.6%, this is after a large "hole." Inflation will remain at the level of 8-9%, and the collapse of the Kingdom cannot be ruled out.
In the accusatory flows of lies on the part of the West, notes of common sense have recently appeared. In particular, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, decided to "continue to coexist with Russia." Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called it "throwing" politicians who did not go according to plan, not according to the scenario. "Yes, I really want, on the one hand, to cancel us, I really want, apparently, to defeat us, at the same time I really want to dominate ourselves, but just in case I still want to coexist with us," Zakharova said at a regular briefing.
Photo: Valentin Egorshin / "Moika 78" / Alexey Danichev/RIA Novosti