Negotiations will be held when it is due
The United States is struggling to push negotiations on a "nuclear deal" with Iran, but time now plays on the side of Tehran, and only Russia can influence it.
According to the correspondent of The Moscow Post, the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, spoke about the conditions for resuming negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal. According to him, there is no specific date for the new, already seventh round of negotiations.
Some certainty may appear only after the inauguration of the new president of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi. It is scheduled for August 6, but after that the necessary consultations will have to take place before returning to negotiations.
Meanwhile, the Americans are ready to negotiate a return to the "nuclear deal," but do not want this process to be delayed. This statement was made by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Earlier, the same thing was said in the French Foreign Ministry. It seems that the West does not like the desire of the Iranian authorities to portray the lifting of sanctions against this country as the success of the recently elected Ibrahim Raisi.
The elections were held on June 20, 61.9% for Raisi. Outgoing Iranian President Hassan Rouhani congratulated his successor on his victory. Raisi's victory was predicted before the elections themselves: he was supported by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who since 1989 has de facto power in Iran.
Raisi is known as Seid, a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, which gives him the right to wear a black turban - a significant factor for religious voters. It also gives him the opportunity to accept the post of spiritual leader of Iran. Raisi and the current spiritual leader of the country have a common homeland - the city of Mashhad.
It is hard to expect him to take a softer stance on the "new nuclear deal." And here will be the great role of Russia, which remains an equally distant arbiter, maintaining a positive agenda with Iran.
Negotiations in Vienna are under way between Iran and a group of States known as 5 + 1 regarding the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. The group consists of the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain, France - five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, as well as Germany.
In 2018, US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from the agreement and announced additional sanctions against Iran. In response, in 2019, Iran announced the suspension of the implementation of two points of the deal. As a result, negotiations reached an impasse, the United States imposed sanctions.
Experts have no doubt that the Islamic Republic continues to enrich uranium. Israel is particularly concerned that it will not allow nuclear weapons to appear in its sworn enemy. Recall that over the past year, a number of provocations and sabotage have occurred, in which Israel is believed to have been involved in organizing in order to slow down work on the nuclear program.
In April 2021, a cyber attack was carried out on a nuclear facility in the city of Natanz, as a result of which some systems failed and a small accident occurred. The official representative of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Behrouz Kamalvandi suffered - he fell into a ventilation shaft, broke his leg and injured his head, TASS wrote.
Iran has no doubt about who organized the attack. As there is no doubt about one of the most resonant murders in the Middle East - the elimination of the main Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fahrizadeh, which occurred in November 2020.
They opened fire on him and his guard to kill him from a car parked on the path of the physicist to work. The shooting was conducted from remote control, in the car itself with weapons there was no one, writes RIA Novosti.
According to the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, Iran is moving further away from the obligations that it assumed under the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA). The official notes that if the "nuclear deal" is restored, Iran's progress in uranium enrichment will lead to a delay in lifting sanctions. In this light, he noted that there is irrationality in Iran's actions.
Pax Americana - everything
At the same time, the United States has deployed its policy on the "nuclear deal" with the departure of Trump and the arrival of Biden. The reason is simple - China, which occupies the minds of the American political establishment. It is China that is the main threat to American interests in the world. This is no longer about preserving the hegemony of Pax Americana, but about not "falling" too much and taking its place in the changed geopolitical situation.
Russia is not interested in the collapse of the United States just as it is not interested in a new war in the Middle East. Now that the Americans are leaving Afghanistan and Iraq, the whole of Central Asia is concerned about threats to its security - a military and humanitarian crisis.
The United States withdrew the request of the administration of former President Donald Trump to restore UN sanctions against Iran because of the "nuclear deal" at the end of February 2021. In fact, nothing has changed on the issue of restrictions, American measures have continued to operate.
However, Washington nevertheless took the first step towards establishing bilateral relations. Despite this, on February 23, the Islamic Republic restricted IAEA access to nuclear facilities.
Iran is the leading regional power in the Middle East, and the last major force in the region that was not directly or indirectly influenced by the United States. More importantly, Iran is one of China's key partners in the region, and one of the main suppliers of energy resources, in particular oil.
Today, according to various estimates, Iran provides up to 25% of oil supplies to China. And this means that it will not be possible to suffocate the PRC from other parties - it is impossible to limit deliveries from the Russian Federation. This was the result of an irresponsible policy towards our country. But instead of weakening geopolitical competitors, today the United States is forced to look for ways to win back and limit their increasingly close military-political integration.
In late March, China and Iran entered into a quarter-century comprehensive cooperation agreement. The details of the treaty are not publicized, but it is known that it will most likely cover not only areas such as economics and culture, but also more sensitive areas - defense and intelligence.
According to experts, an important part of the agreements was an agreement on the supply of Iranian oil to China for the same 25 years. The PRC receives another part of energy from the Russian Federation. Thus, China diversified supplies from countries independent of US policy, ensuring energy security.
Even despite this unpleasant fact for the United States, the Biden administration is seeking to conclude a new nuclear deal with Iran as soon as possible in order to free up resources for other areas, primarily Chinese. But the new president, Ibrahim Raisi, is unlikely to rush, time now plays on the side of Iran.