Consolidation continues, enlightenment of the West is late
Russia already for a long time opposes the unipolar world, though is forced to reckon with his influence. The West hardly accepts everything that undermines his hegemony, but is forced to recognize reality of multipolarity.
Signs of the movement to some common denominator are hardly noticeable, but they are. The question is in whether this oncoming traffic will be followed by destruction of all that was saved up since the end of World War II? Or the parties will come to a conciliatory compromise, at least for several decades?
In other words, how 2022 will become history? How a step to a point of "non-return" and further slipping to escalation in the relations of Russia and the USA? Or, how moment of "enlightenment" and acceptance by the West of the new status quo? In the camp of predominant force there are talks about multipolarity too, but so far only in articles of journalists, political scientists and also an interview of the former politicians and retired generals.
Ukraine in the center of attention, a lot of things will turn a conflict outcome. The Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov raised questions of a modality of the relations of Russia with the West an edge. According to him, continuation of active deliveries of the western arms to Kiev changes special operation geography on protection of Donbass. In the conditions of escalation with participation of the USA, after tasks of liberation of LPR and the DPR there are questions of control over other territories for the purpose of ensuring their safety and the interests of Russia, the correspondent of The Moscow Post reports.
Sergei Lavrov declared it on Wednesday, July 20, than caused an alarm in the western capitals. Especially as from the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation the order arrived to strengthen actions for defeat of the opponent, to exclude a possibility of AFU to launch massive missiles at the cities of Donbass and other regions. On the same day the The Washington Post newspaper made a statement that NATO countries in the next months intend to increase deliveries to Kiev of missile systems of volley HIMARS fire (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) to consolidate "achievements" of AFU.
To shoot oneself in the foot and to dance at the same time?
On the one hand, long it isn't necessary to look for signs of some "enlightenment" of the West. Ned Price, the spokesman of U.S. State Department called one of them. I said that "Washington counts on resumption of work of Nord Stream", considers it a guarantee of energy security of Europe. I told that approved the decision of Canada to return the turbine of Nord Stream after repair.
The USA will also welcome the conclusion on July 22 in Istanbul of the arrangement on export of the Ukrainian grain — the same Price on Thursday at a briefing for journalists said.
On the other hand, the USA, delivering to Kiev arms, choose also other scenario, push a situation towards escalation. And not only in Ukraine. So, for example, didn't straighten out the commander of the Air Force of Germany who expressed the need to prepare for use of nuclear weapon and hissed: "Putin, don't try to compete with us". It, first.
Secondly, AFU made an attempt to attack the Zaporizhia NPP shock unmanned aerial vehicles counting on the fact that there will be a tragedy similar to Chernobyl, the member of the main council of military civil authorities of the Zaporozhye region Vladimir Rogov said. As a result of the attack 11 employees were wounded, four of them are in a serious condition. The group of forces of air defense was strengthened by the Russian Federation.
Reactor part of the NPP of injuries didn't sustain, but it is impossible to exclude that it won't be made by the rockets of the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher capable to strike high-precision blows. With their help Antonovsky Bridge on entry into Kherson was already destroyed. If the USA maintains further the current terrorist draft of the Kiev authorities to destroy all those cities from where they should recede, then to the Pentagon about tasks will weaken Russia what to report. Destructions will increase loading on restoration of the freed territories.
Thirdly, highly mobile M142 HIMARS is suitable for escalation of the conflict, for blows to the territory of the Crimea, other regions of Russia. Only ammunition which, depending on type, can hit the targets and on removal in 80 km (in the RSZO mode), and at distance to 300 and more than a km are necessary if it is an operational and tactical rocket.
The Kiev authorities already said that they plan to strike a blow to Krymsky Bridge at the first opportunity. HIMARS are capable to come to the purpose on coordinates which the satellite group of the USA can give. Thus, this system changes conflict geography, nullifies readiness of Russia to conduct negotiations with the Kiev authorities, threatens with an exit of fighting out of borders of Ukraine, does the American satellites by the legitimate purpose.
Diplomacy, time and space
The geography of the end of March 2022 can no longer be returned, - said Sergey Lavrov in a recent interview. "The geography is different now. This is far from only the DPR and LPR, it is also the Kherson region, the Zaporizhzhya region and a number of other territories. And this process continues, and continues consistently and persistently, "the minister added, as if hiding the full list of lands to be liberated.
The previous tasks of denazification and demilitarization of the Kyiv regime remain in order to exclude threats to the security of the Russian Federation, Lavrov added. At the same time, the Russian military considers cargo with weapons from the United States and the EU to be legitimate targets for destruction. Questions of legality and legitimacy receive a new understanding.
In Russia, the reassessment of the entire system of relations with the West is also underway, not the first year.
Moscow left PACE for a long time, and Minister Lavrov just publicly remembered the designs of Russophobe Brzezinski and his "big game," the act of which in the West's struggle against Russia is precisely the Ukrainian crisis.
Washington's policy in the Russian direction has always been saturated with the bile of immigrants from Europe like Brzezinski, was influenced by English and German political schools. The Americans have always resembled the current Kyiv nouveau riche in some way, they believed in the justification of the national greatness of the United States invented for them. True, Americans paid for these culinary myths about their own greatness and seasoning them in the form of Russophobia themselves.
Abandoning illusions is not easy for everyone. For Russia, it is difficult to get used to the idea that the recent, so-called "partners" surrounded the country, intend to strangle, subjugate. Moreover, as many new studies and evidence show, the West has always strived for this. Many Soviet and Russian authors, however, believed that the tragic history of the invasions of the collective West on Russia will forever remain only the subject of history. Alas, hopes were not realized!
But not so simple, some textbooks and lecture courses will have to be rewritten. In particular, to think again why the memory of the Germans about the good deeds that Moscow did for them by the hands of Gorbachev did not live so long. Berlin tried to cynically forget everything, almost immediately after the descent of the red banner over the Kremlin. What can we say about the Great Patriotic War!
And over time, Germany bristled again. About the Baltic states and former European satellites of the former Soviet Union and do not have to talk. Recently, Finland decided to join them, aligning the "eastern vertical" of NATO.
Moscow refused to recognize the defeat in the Cold War, and continued to harbor hopes for a conflict-free transition to a multipolar world. Apart from individual outbursts, such as Yevgeny Primakov's turn over the Atlantic, or Vladimir Putin's speech in Munich, this was very clear. Russian political scientists and the media also followed the conciliatory key. Maybe with exceptions that did not interfere with the general mood for "partnership" with the West.
Woke up Donbass
The official transition from the concept of "Western partners" to the category of "unfriendly countries" took time and effort. Although in the West at that time Russia was already declared the "main threat." Public opinion in Russia itself has become accustomed to the prevailing lulling semantic background. Woke up Donbass, but also not immediately.
The call was muffled by the pillow of the Minsk agreements. Everyone hoped for the best, although the West had already made the second test "bite" in 2008 in South Ossetia. The first was also bombed, back in the former Yugoslavia. But Moscow continued to harbor hopes for the remnants of sovereignty in the heads of the leaders of old Europe. They tried not to notice the "new" eastern neighbors, so as not to spoil hopes for partnership with Berlin and Paris. Ironically, these two capitals were under the heel of Brussels, and there the Poles and Balts were the main ones.
And the West began to approach Ukraine immediately after the collapse of the USSR, following Brzezinski's instructions, as Lavrov noted. The format of "that," the Soviet state structure of historical Russia suggested the possibility of holding dividing borders. They were carried out with the help of EU promises, targeted cash injections and massive information aggression in the spirit of "Ukraine is not Russia."
But they did not expect that Russia would turn over this "chess board" inherited from the USSR.
Development of foundations and principles
"One gets the impression that the West simply cannot offer the world its model of the future," Vladimir Putin said at a plenary meeting of the Strong Ideas for a New Time forum, which was held on July 20. And sovereignty is freedom of national development, the president added.
In Russia, the DPR and LPR, as well as in the liberated expanses of Ukraine, there is a consolidation of opinions, sentiments, assessments and actions designed for their own strength and trusting ties with those states that have interests that coincide with Russian ones. At the same time, "no one is interested in there being crises in Europe, while it is sad to see that today in the EU a common agenda is being formed not taking into account the interests of member countries, but is imposed by the United States," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said following a meeting with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Siyyarto.
The recent participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin in a trilateral summit in Tehran showed that Iran is ready for long-term and large-scale partnerships. Moscow and Tehran intend to increase the level of cooperation to a strategic partnership, are preparing a corresponding bilateral agreement for signing. China already has a long-term agreement with Iran.
The severe restrictions imposed by the West on Russia and Iran serve as an additional incentive for economic rapprochement and security partnerships. According to Al Jazeera, "Washington sent a strong signal about the desire of Moscow, Tehran and Ankara to work together, without imposing US policies, positions and agendas on them."
In the final joint statement, the Troika said that they "rejected all unilateral sanctions that violate international law, international humanitarian law and the UN Charter."
Of course, the EAEU states are on the first line of attention of Moscow and there is something to work on. Crimea can be in demand as a transit Black Sea territory and the southern sea gates of the Union State and the Eurasian Economic Union. A proposal for this was recently made to Belarus.
The EAEU is ready to increase settlements in national currencies. This topic will become the main one during the upcoming meeting of the working group of the association. The issue of increasing mutual settlements within the EAEU has already been discussed several times. In 2021, the share of payments in this format amounted to 73.5%. It is estimated that it could reach 80% in 2022.
Finally, Minsk "de facto recognized that there is Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk," and if necessary, recognizes this by decree of the head of state, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said in an interview with AFP, BelTA reports.
For relations with the countries that are part of the SCO and BRICS, the situation is more complicated. So, for example, India and China are closely connected with the Western world, depend on it in some important areas, as well as Russia itself. But for New Delhi and Beijing, trade and economic distancing from the West is not on the agenda.
For China, trade, economic and investment ties with the United States, the European Union, and Japan are critical. India differs only in the scale of its relations with the West, which are more modest.
But in the trade operations of the PRC with Russia, the share of the dollar in settlements fell below 50%. Back in 2014, the parties signed a three-year swap agreement for 150 billion yuan ($24.5 billion), which opened access to national currencies without the need to acquire it on the open market. Rosneft has translated export contracts with China into euros.
According to Vladimir Putin, "both at the national and global levels, the foundations, principles of a harmonious, more just, socially oriented and safe world order are being developed - alternative to the existing or, one might say, the hitherto unipolar world order, which in its nature, of course, becomes a brake for the development of civilization."
Photo: Press Service of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation